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Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Aug 21, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Hernando Siles
Penarol

The Strongest
1 - 0
Penarol

Triverio (44' pen.)
Wayar (17'), Ayarza (57'), Aimar (63')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Aguerre (53'), Fernandez (64'), Baez (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between The Strongest and Penarol, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

The Strongest

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Last Game: Penarol 4-0 The Strongest
Wednesday, August 14 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
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Penarol

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Penarol 0-0 Cerro Largo
Saturday, August 17 at 9pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

We said: The Strongest 1-0 Penarol (Penarol advances 4-1 on aggregate)

 No one expects much from the Bolivians after what happened in the opening leg, and with little pressure on their shoulders, we expect them to be a lot more compact defensively and perhaps exit the competition on a positive note. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The Strongest win with a probability of 54.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 21.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a The Strongest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.95%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for The Strongest in this match.

Result
The StrongestDrawPenarol
54.66% (0.119 0.12) 23.87% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05) 21.46% (-0.07 -0.07)
Both teams to score 51.17% (0.061 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.46% (0.13 0.13)49.54% (-0.131 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.43% (0.116 0.12)71.57% (-0.117 -0.12)
The Strongest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.98% (0.091999999999999 0.09)18.01% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.11% (0.16 0.16)48.88% (-0.161 -0.16)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.41% (0.0039999999999978 0)37.59% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.63% (0.0019999999999989 0)74.37% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Score Analysis
    The Strongest 54.65%
    Penarol 21.46%
    Draw 23.87%
The StrongestDrawPenarol
1-0 @ 11.6% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-0 @ 9.95% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.73% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.68% (0.022 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.56% (0.022 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.72% (0.011 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.44% (0.017 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.38% (0.017 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.17% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 3.42%
Total : 54.65%
1-1 @ 11.35% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 6.77% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.76% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 23.87%
0-1 @ 6.62% (-0.035 -0.04)
1-2 @ 5.56% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.24% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.81% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.55% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1.06% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.62%
Total : 21.46%

How you voted: The Strongest vs Penarol

The Strongest
63.0%
Draw
6.5%
Penarol
30.4%
46
Head to Head
Aug 14, 2024 11pm
Round of 16 1st Leg
Penarol
4-0
The Strongest
Fernandez (9'), Silvera (16'), Baez (36'), Batista (72')
Darias (27')

Jusino (59'), Ramallo (71'), Ortega (85')
> Preview
May 17, 2018 11.15pm
-
Penarol
2-0
The Strongest
Palacios (20'), Rodriguez (37' pen.)
Martinez (56')
Martinez (66')

Ballivian (27'), Jara (57')
Mar 15, 2018 10.15pm
-
The Strongest
1-0
Penarol
Carcelen (20')
Carcelen (53'), Campos (72'), Martelli (94')

Palacios (13'), Rojo (32'), Maldonado (53')
rhs 2.0
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