MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 16:46:04| >> :60:123:123:
Botafogo logo
Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Aug 23, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Nilton Santos
Defensa y Justicia

Botafogo
1 - 1
Defensa

Gabriel (56')
Gabriel (29'), Tche (43'), Pedro Galvao de Carvalho (51'), Cuesta (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Tripichio (78')
Malatini (22')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Botafogo and Defensa y Justicia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Defensa 1-0 Emelec
Wednesday, August 9 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

We said: Botafogo 1-0 Defensa y Justicia

Fogo may be the stingiest defensive unit in South America, and we expect their tight marking will frustrate Defensa's top attacking threats, allowing them to find that opening which they tend to capitalise on at home. The Brazilians could be missing their top goalscorer in Tiquinho Soares for this match, but Lage is a resourceful manager who we believe will find a solution. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 54.2%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 20.36%.

The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.95%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.

Result
BotafogoDrawDefensa y Justicia
54.2% (-0.067 -0.07) 25.44% (0.029999999999998 0.03) 20.36% (0.038 0.04)
Both teams to score 45.19% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.31% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)56.68% (0.064 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.35% (-0.055 -0.05)77.64% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Botafogo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.05% (-0.054999999999993 -0.05)20.95% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.3% (-0.084000000000003 -0.08)53.7% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Defensa y Justicia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.17% (0.00099999999999767 0)42.83% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.86% (0.0019999999999989 0)79.14% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Score Analysis
    Botafogo 54.19%
    Defensa y Justicia 20.36%
    Draw 25.44%
BotafogoDrawDefensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 14.02% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 10.95% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.29% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.71% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.84% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.23% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.05% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 1.89% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.19%
Total : 54.19%
1-1 @ 11.89% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.97% (0.022 0.02)
2-2 @ 3.94% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 25.44%
0-1 @ 7.61% (0.019 0.02)
1-2 @ 5.04% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.23% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.43% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.11%
0-3 @ 0.91% (0.003 0)
Other @ 1.03%
Total : 20.36%

How you voted: Botafogo vs Defensa

Botafogo
76.2%
Draw
19.0%
Defensa y Justicia
4.8%
21
Head to Head
Feb 21, 2019 12.30am
First stage
Defensa
0-3
Botafogo

Castro (28'), Barboza (41'), Tripichio (62'), Fernandez (68')
Lima (53', 75'), Santana (81')
Fernando (21'), Jean (26'), Fernandez (40'), Marcinho (52'), Kieza (63'), Pimpao (66')
Marcinho (68')
Feb 6, 2019 11.30pm
First stage
Botafogo
1-0
Defensa
Lima (94')
Marcinho (6'), Fernando (33'), Carli (60')

Barboza (37'), Martinez (92')
rhs 2.0
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