MX23RW : Wednesday, January 22 04:43:07| >> :60:2010:2010:
Penarol
Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Jun 6, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Campeon del Siglo
Defensa y Justicia

Penarol
0 - 3
Defensa


Arezo (29'), Alonso (65'), Menosse (68'), Rak (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Togni (42'), Fernandez (50'), Solari (87')
Gutierrez (53'), Soto (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Penarol and Defensa y Justicia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: La Luz 3-2 Penarol
Saturday, June 3 at 12am in Uruguayan Primera Division

Defensa y Justicia

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: River Plate 0-0 Defensa
Saturday, June 3 at 8.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

We said: Penarol 0-2 Defensa y Justicia

 Considering the game means very little to Penarol, and Defensa y Justicia won the reverse fixture by a three-goal margin, we expect the visitors to emerge as comfortable victors on Tuesday evening. Defensa have looked very solid in recent weeks, losing just one of their last 11 games in all competitions, and they have displayed they have what it takes to book their place in the next round of the Copa Sudamericana. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 29.34% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.

Result
PenarolDrawDefensa y Justicia
42.36% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02) 28.3% (0.009999999999998 0.01) 29.34% (0.011999999999997 0.01)
Both teams to score 45.41% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.5% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)60.5% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.38% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)80.62% (0.018999999999991 0.02)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.76% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)28.24% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.06% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)63.94% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Defensa y Justicia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.28% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)36.72% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.49% (-0.004999999999999 -0)73.51% (0.0050000000000097 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Penarol 42.36%
    Defensa y Justicia 29.33%
    Draw 28.28%
PenarolDrawDefensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 13.11% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.31% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 8.29% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 3.5% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 3.5% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 1.75% (-0.002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.11% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.11% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.69%
Total : 42.36%
1-1 @ 13.13%
0-0 @ 10.36% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.16% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 28.28%
0-1 @ 10.38% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.58%
0-2 @ 5.2% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 2.2%
0-3 @ 1.74% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.39% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 1.85%
Total : 29.33%

How you voted: Penarol vs Defensa

Penarol
50.0%
Draw
10.0%
Defensa y Justicia
40.0%
10
Head to Head
May 5, 2023 1am
Group Stage
Defensa
4-1
Penarol
rhs 2.0
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