Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 2, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Banco del Pacifico
Emelec1 - 2Defensa
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Union 2-0 Defensa
Friday, July 28 at 8.30pm in Argentine Primera Division
Friday, July 28 at 8.30pm in Argentine Primera Division
Goals
for
for
36
We said: Emelec 1-2 Defensa y Justicia
While the hosts have made it to the knockout stages of this competition, they have been very poor for the majority of the season and are likely to find it much more difficult as they come up against the better teams in the competition. The visitors have not been incredible themselves, but they have been scoring relatively freely in this competition and domestically, and we fancy that they will be able to outscore their opponents in this one. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 46.58%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 26.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.2%) and 2-1 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Defensa y Justicia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Emelec | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
46.58% ( -0.07) | 27.36% ( 0.03) | 26.06% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 45.96% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
