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EFL Cup
Exeter City
EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 26, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
St James Park
Luton Town

Exeter
1 - 0
Luton

Mitchell (83')
Mitchell (48'), Harper (51'), Sinisalo (78'), Carroll (90+6'), Sweeney (90+6')
Mitchell (88')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Mengi (35'), Chong (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Exeter City and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Oxford Utd 3-0 Exeter
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League One

Luton Town

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Luton 1-1 Wolves
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in Premier League

We said: Exeter City 0-3 Luton Town

 Even with a wealth of first-team regulars expected to enjoy a night off, Luton should not have to overcome many obstacles to sink an Exeter crop whose morale is surely at an all-time low. A first clean sheet of the season should be on the menu for the Hatters too, as Edwards's side end the Grecians' EFL Cup adventure with a routine success at St James Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 45.1%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.

Result
Exeter CityDrawLuton Town
30.45% (0.156 0.16) 24.45% (0.048000000000002 0.05) 45.1% (-0.212 -0.21)
Both teams to score 57.8% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.21% (-0.15199999999999 -0.15)44.78% (0.142 0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.85% (-0.145 -0.15)67.14% (0.137 0.14)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.23% (0.025999999999996 0.03)27.76% (-0.035 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.65% (0.037000000000006 0.04)63.34% (-0.044000000000004 -0.04)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.02% (-0.154 -0.15)19.98% (0.145 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.84% (-0.245 -0.24)52.16% (0.236 0.24)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 30.45%
    Luton Town 45.1%
    Draw 24.44%
Exeter CityDrawLuton Town
2-1 @ 7.34% (0.026 0.03)
1-0 @ 7.11% (0.05 0.05)
2-0 @ 4.55% (0.036 0.04)
3-1 @ 3.13% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.52%
3-0 @ 1.95% (0.017 0.02)
4-1 @ 1% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 30.45%
1-1 @ 11.44% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.91% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.55% (0.034 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.35% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.44%
1-2 @ 9.22% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-1 @ 8.93% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
0-2 @ 7.19% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-3 @ 4.95% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
0-3 @ 3.86% (-0.03 -0.03)
2-3 @ 3.17% (-0.019 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.99% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-4 @ 1.56% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.28% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 45.1%

How you voted: Exeter vs Luton

Exeter City
18.4%
Draw
10.2%
Luton Town
71.4%
49
Head to Head
Feb 3, 2018 3pm
Luton
1-0
Exeter
Cornick (38')
Oct 17, 2017 7.45pm
Exeter
1-4
Luton
Taylor (21')
Brown (37'), Moxey (74')
Collins (8'), Potts (46'), Hylton (52'), Cornick (55')
Rea (45'), Potts (80')
Mar 18, 2017 3pm
Luton
1-1
Exeter
Hylton (68')
Sheehan (56'), Senior (83')
Taylor (59')
Watkins (37')
Nov 26, 2016 3pm
Exeter
0-0
Luton
Cuthbert (58'), Rea (65'), Ruddock (67')
Nov 5, 2016 3pm
First Round
Exeter
1-3
Luton
Reid (40')
Sweeney (11'), Olejnik (28'), Taylor (45'), Reid (66'), Wheeler (76')
Hylton (10', 86'), Rea (71')
Hylton (28'), Ruddock (35'), Mackail-Smith (91')
Ruddock (75')
rhs 2.0
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