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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 75.43%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 10.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.87%) and 3-0 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.45%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Vitesse |
75.43% ( -0.92) | 14.48% ( 0.5) | 10.09% ( 0.41) |
Both teams to score 56.72% ( -0.5) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
71.15% ( -1.33) | 28.85% ( 1.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
50.21% ( -1.65) | 49.79% ( 1.64) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.61% ( -0.45) | 6.39% ( 0.45) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
76.04% ( -1.26) | 23.96% ( 1.25) |
Vitesse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.59% ( -0.24) | 39.41% ( 0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.89% ( -0.22) | 76.1% ( 0.22) |
Score Analysis |
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Vitesse |
2-0 @ 9.52% ( 0.25) 2-1 @ 8.87% ( 0.18) 3-0 @ 8.73% ( 0) 3-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.36) 4-0 @ 6.01% ( -0.16) 4-1 @ 5.59% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.18) 5-1 @ 3.08% ( -0.19) 4-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.1) 6-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.12) 5-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.1) 6-1 @ 1.41% ( -0.12) Other @ 4.52% Total : 75.43% | 1-1 @ 6.45% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 2.52% ( 0.19) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.21% Total : 14.48% | 1-2 @ 3% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 2.34% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.44% Total : 10.09% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 20 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 65 | 20 | 45 | 49 |
2 | Ajax | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 24 | 45 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 41 |
4 | Feyenoord | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
5 | FC Twente | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 21 | 13 | 34 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 25 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 25 |
10 | Heerenveen | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 24 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 23 |
12 | Willem II | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 23 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 23 |
14 | Groningen | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 21 |
15 | Heracles | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 20 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 17 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 11 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | -29 | 10 |
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