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Europa League
Europa League | Group Stage
Oct 26, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Gradski stadion
Freiburg logo

Backa Topola
1 - 3
Freiburg

Petrovic (13')
Cvetkovic (60'), Vlalukin (88'), Calusic (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Grifo (49' pen., 59', 73')
Lienhart (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Backa Topola and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Backa Topola

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Last Game: Backa Topola 2-2 Olympiacos
Thursday, October 5 at 5.45pm in Europa League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Freiburg

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Freiburg 2-1 VfL Bochum
Saturday, October 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Backa Topola 1-3 Freiburg

 Given the manner of their comeback against Olympiacos, Backa Topola will fancy their chances of earning more points against Freiburg. However, we feel that the German side may click into gear in this contest, undoing their next opponents at the back like West Ham and the Greek outfit last time out. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 39.53%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 36.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.86%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 2-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Freiburg in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Freiburg.

Result
Backa TopolaDrawFreiburg
36.87% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 23.6% (0.029 0.03) 39.53% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Both teams to score 62.94% (-0.12 -0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.06% (-0.157 -0.16)38.94% (0.156 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.74% (-0.164 -0.16)61.26% (0.163 0.16)
Backa Topola Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.7% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)21.3% (0.074999999999999 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.76% (-0.116 -0.12)54.24% (0.11499999999999 0.11)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.98% (-0.075999999999993 -0.08)20.02% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.78% (-0.126 -0.13)52.22% (0.126 0.13)
Score Analysis
    Backa Topola 36.87%
    Freiburg 39.53%
    Draw 23.6%
Backa TopolaDrawFreiburg
2-1 @ 8.2% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 6.6% (0.034 0.03)
2-0 @ 5.1% (0.014 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.23% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.4% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.63% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 1.64% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.32% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.02% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 36.87%
1-1 @ 10.6% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-2 @ 6.6% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.26% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.82% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 23.6%
1-2 @ 8.53% (0.0019999999999989 0)
0-1 @ 6.86% (0.034 0.03)
0-2 @ 5.52% (0.014 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.57% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.54% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.96%
1-4 @ 1.84% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.42% (-0.01 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.19% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 39.53%

How you voted: Backa Topola vs Freiburg

Backa Topola
7.2%
Draw
8.4%
Freiburg
84.3%
83
rhs 2.0
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