We said: Ferencvaros 2-1 Red Star Belgrade
Given the level of their performance last week, Red Star will be provided with the respect that they deserve. However, Ferencvaros will welcome a return to familiar territory, and we feel that they will do enough to claim a potentially-pivotal victory in this group.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ferencvaros win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 28.36% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ferencvaros win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ferencvaros in this match.
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