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Europa League
Nantes
Europa League | Group Stage
Oct 27, 2022 at 8pm UK
La Beaujoire-Louis Fonteneau
Qarabag

Nantes
2 - 1
Qarabag

Blas (17'), Ganago (90+5')
Bamba (41'), Girotto (60')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Ozobic (56' pen.)
Vesovic (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Nantes and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nantes

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Nice 1-1 Nantes
Sunday, October 23 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1

Qarabag FK

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Qarabag 0-0 Olympiakos
Thursday, October 13 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Nantes 1-1 Qarabag FK

 Qarabag have certainly been the more impressive of the two sides in the group stage thus far, but we do not see them picking up all three points in France, instead opting for a low-scoring draw. The hosts are far from their best this season and we do not anticipate them having enough to better the Azerbaijani champions and keep the fight for second place alive. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nantes win with a probability of 56.34%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 2-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 0-1 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nantes would win this match.

Result
NantesDrawQarabag FK
56.34% (-0.136 -0.14) 22.46% (0.02 0.02) 21.2% (0.117 0.12)
Both teams to score 55.32% (0.105 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.16% (0.057000000000002 0.06)43.83% (-0.056000000000004 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.78% (0.056000000000004 0.06)66.22% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Nantes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.62% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)15.38% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.83% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)44.17% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.38% (0.143 0.14)34.62% (-0.141 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.65% (0.153 0.15)71.35% (-0.15000000000001 -0.15)
Score Analysis
    Nantes 56.34%
    Qarabag FK 21.2%
    Draw 22.46%
NantesDrawQarabag FK
1-0 @ 9.97% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.9% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 9.33% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
3-1 @ 6.18% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.82% (-0.03 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.28% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.89% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.73% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.53% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-1 @ 1.08% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-0 @ 1.02% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 56.34%
1-1 @ 10.57% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.32% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.25% (0.018 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.16% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 22.46%
0-1 @ 5.65% (0.008 0.01)
1-2 @ 5.61% (0.025 0.03)
0-2 @ 2.99% (0.016 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.98% (0.016 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.86% (0.014 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.06% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 21.2%

How you voted: Nantes vs Qarabag

Nantes
28.9%
Draw
15.7%
Qarabag FK
55.4%
121
Head to Head
Sep 15, 2022 5.45pm
Group G
Qarabag
3-0
Nantes
Kwabena (60'), Richard (65'), Jankovic (72')

Girotto (80')
rhs 2.0
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