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Euro 2020 header take 8

Euro 2024
San Marino national football team
Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Jun 16, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Kazakhstan national football team

San Marino
0 - 3
Kazakhstan


Capicchioni (67'), Lazzari (70')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Vorogovskiy (37'), Tagybergen (64' pen.), Zainutdinov (90+5')
Zainutdinov (72'), Kuat (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between San Marino and Kazakhstan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

San Marino

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Slovenia 2-0 San Marino
Sunday, March 26 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Kazakhstan

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Kazakhstan 3-2 Denmark
Sunday, March 26 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

We said: San Marino 0-3 Kazakhstan

 San Marino invariably aim to avoid defeat instead of going all out to win, meaning that Fabrizio Costantini will likely set his team up for another damage-limitation job on Friday. Given that San Marino have scored a solitary goal in their previous 11 outings, Kazakhstan look destined to claim a clean-sheet victory over the world's lowest-ranked national team. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 53.19%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 21.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.53%) and 1-2 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-0 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-3 win for Kazakhstan in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Kazakhstan.

Result
San MarinoDrawKazakhstan
21.37% (0.116 0.12) 25.44% (0.035 0.04) 53.19% (-0.148 -0.15)
Both teams to score 46.49% (0.054000000000002 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.33% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)55.67% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.17% (-0.004999999999999 -0)76.82% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
San Marino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.82% (0.117 0.12)41.18% (-0.115 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.29% (0.103 0.1)77.71% (-0.10000000000001 -0.1)
Kazakhstan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.04% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)20.96% (0.065999999999999 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.29% (-0.1 -0.1)53.71% (0.103 0.1)
Score Analysis
    San Marino 21.37%
    Kazakhstan 53.18%
    Draw 25.44%
San MarinoDrawKazakhstan
1-0 @ 7.66% (0.027 0.03)
2-1 @ 5.31% (0.025 0.03)
2-0 @ 3.4% (0.022 0.02)
3-1 @ 1.57% (0.012 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.23% (0.008 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.01% (0.0099999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 1.2%
Total : 21.37%
1-1 @ 11.96% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 8.63% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-2 @ 4.15% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 0.7%
Total : 25.44%
0-1 @ 13.48% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-2 @ 10.53% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
1-2 @ 9.35% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-3 @ 5.49% (-0.031 -0.03)
1-3 @ 4.87% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.16% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-4 @ 2.14% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.9% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 53.18%

How you voted: San Marino vs Kazakhstan

San Marino
10.0%
Draw
0.0%
Kazakhstan
90.0%
20
Head to Head
Nov 16, 2019 5pm
Group Stage
San Marino
1-3
Kazakhstan
Bernardi (77')
Palazzi (54'), Simoncini (85'), Ceccaroli (90')
Zaynutdinov (6'), Suyumbayev (22'), Shchetkin (26')
Miroshnichenko (32'), Tagybergen (45')
Jun 11, 2019 3pm
Group Stage
Kazakhstan
4-0
San Marino
Kuat (45'), Fedin (62'), Suyumbayev (65'), Islamkhan (79')
Yerlanov (31'), Shomko (90')

Censoni (48'), Brolli (64')
rhs 2.0
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