Unwanted defensive changes would not have been on either manager's agenda this week, but with the motivation of hosting the Red Devils in the fourth round, neither teams need an additional incentive to extinguish their opponents' cup dreams.
Newport's rosier streak of form cannot be overlooked, though, and with the visitors well-versed in coming up trumps in replays, we can only envisage a slender triumph for the Exiles as Eastleigh rue what could have been.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 47.15%. A win for Eastleigh had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.76%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Eastleigh win was 2-1 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
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