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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 47.62%. A win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 27.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Forest Green Rovers win was 0-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
47.62% ( -0.03) | 25.29% ( 0.01) | 27.09% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 52.77% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.64% ( -0.02) | 50.36% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.7% ( -0.02) | 72.3% ( 0.02) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.84% ( -0.02) | 21.16% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.97% ( -0.03) | 54.03% ( 0.03) |
Forest Green Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.93% ( 0) | 33.07% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.34% ( 0) | 69.66% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
1-0 @ 10.86% 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.44% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.83% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.37% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.68% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.88% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.7% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 2.49% Total : 47.62% | 1-1 @ 12.02% 0-0 @ 7% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.28% | 0-1 @ 7.74% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.65% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.29% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.46% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.91% 0-3 @ 1.58% ( 0) Other @ 2.46% Total : 27.09% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
> League Two Full Table |