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FA Cup
Notts County
FA Cup | First Round
Nov 1, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Meadow Lane Stadium
Alfreton Town

Notts County
5 - 1
Alfreton

Platt (16'), Jatta (48', 62'), Brown (85' pen., 90')
Gordon (42'), Palmer (74')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Waldock (14')
Whitehouse (11'), Cantrill (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's FA Cup clash between Notts County and Alfreton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Notts County

All competitions
Last Game: Notts County 1-0 Harrogate
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in League Two

Alfreton Town

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Rushall Olympic 1-3 Alfreton
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in National League North

We said: Notts County 3-0 Alfreton Town

 With Alfreton boasting a strong defensive record in the sixth tier, there is a chance that Notts County will not have it their own way. Nevertheless, it would come as a surprise if the home side did not run away this one, leading us to predict a comprehensive victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 58.76%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 19.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.18%), while for an Alfreton Town win it was 1-2 (5.27%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.

Result
Notts CountyDrawAlfreton Town
58.76% (-0.213 -0.21) 21.68% (0.101 0.1) 19.56% (0.115 0.12)
Both teams to score 55.29% (-0.151 -0.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.38% (-0.291 -0.29)42.62% (0.296 0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.98% (-0.291 -0.29)65.02% (0.295 0.3)
Notts County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.81% (-0.161 -0.16)14.19% (0.165 0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.11% (-0.316 -0.32)41.89% (0.32 0.32)
Alfreton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.43% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)35.56% (0.055 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.67% (-0.055 -0.05)72.33% (0.058000000000007 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Notts County 58.76%
    Alfreton Town 19.56%
    Draw 21.68%
Notts CountyDrawAlfreton Town
2-1 @ 9.95% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 9.85% (0.071 0.07)
2-0 @ 9.62% (0.013 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.48% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
3-0 @ 6.26% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.35% (-0.025 -0.02)
4-1 @ 3.16% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-0 @ 3.06% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.63% (-0.022 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.24% (-0.022 -0.02)
5-0 @ 1.19% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 58.76%
1-1 @ 10.18% (0.06 0.06)
2-2 @ 5.14% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.05% (0.066 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.15% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 21.68%
1-2 @ 5.27% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
0-1 @ 5.22% (0.061 0.06)
0-2 @ 2.7% (0.027 0.03)
1-3 @ 1.81% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 1.77% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-3 @ 0.93% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 19.56%

How you voted: Notts County vs Alfreton

Notts County
84.0%
Draw
6.2%
Alfreton Town
9.9%
81
Head to Head
Jul 9, 2024 7.30pm
Club Friendlies 3
Alfreton
2-2
Notts County
Abbey (42'), Salam (59')
A (52'), Hunt (62' og.)
rhs 2.0
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