The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga table lock horns on Saturday afternoon as 17th-placed Koln play host to basement club SV Darmstadt 98 at RheinEnergieStadion.
While the Lilies require a miracle to avoid an immediate demotion to the second tier, the Billy Goats are also running out of time to secure their top-flight status.
Match preview
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After claiming just their fourth Bundesliga victory of the season against VfL Bochum (2-1) at the beginning of this month, Koln were brought back down to earth when they suffered a 2-0 defeat at Bayern Munich last weekend.
The Billy Goats held their own for much of the contest at the Allianz Arena, but goals in the final half-hour from Raphael Guerreiro and Thomas Muller eventually condemned them to their 15th league loss of the campaign; only Saturday's opponents Darmstadt (19) have lost more in the German top flight this term.
Timo Schultz's side recently slipped into the relegation zone following an upturn in form from Mainz 05, who have collected 10 points from their last four matches. Koln currently sit 17th in the table and four points behind Mainz in the relegation playoff position, while they are five points adrift of safety with only five games remaining.
The odds are against Koln to avoid the drop as only Eintracht Frankfurt in 2015-16 have ever closed a gap of at least four points to 16th place at this late stage in a Bundesliga season.
Koln have struggled offensively throughout this season and have scored the fewest goals (23) in the Bundesliga thus far, netting 13 goals in their last 13 matches since the turn of the year. However, the Billy Goats have found the net in each of their last six meetings with Darmstadt, including a 1-0 away win in December.
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Darmstadt are hanging onto their Bundesliga status by the finest of threads following a club-record winless run of 22 Bundesliga matches; only Tasmania Berlin (31 between 1965-66) and Schalke 04 (30 between 2019-2021) have endured longer streaks without a win in Bundesliga history.
After suffering a heavy 4-0 away defeat to relegation rivals Mainz, the Lilies were beaten 1-0 at home to Freiburg last weekend courtesy of a first-half strike from Ritsu Doan.
Torsten Lieberknecht, who recently amassed 100 games in charge of Darmstadt, has failed to steer his side off the foot of the Bundesliga table since early December, and they now sit 12 points behind 16th-placed Mainz as well as 13 points adrift of safety with only five games left to play.
Darmstadt are aware that they will be relegated if they suffered defeat in Saturday's game against Koln, due to the fact that Mainz play host to the Billy Goats next week. The Lilies will also be relegated if they draw with Koln, Mainz beat Freiburg and Bochum avoid defeat to Wolfsburg.
The prospect of success on Saturday is slim for Darmstadt as they have never beaten Koln in nine previous attempts as a Bundesliga club; they have only faced Bayern (10) on more occasions in the top flight without winning. However, Darmstadt did win 2-1 in their last visit to Koln as a second-tier side in April 2019.
Team News
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Koln trio Justin Diehl (muscle), Luca Kilian (knee) and Davie Selke (metatarsal) all remain in the treatment room with injuries, while Mark Uth, who has been sidelined since mid-December with a knee problem, will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
Eric Martel is available to return from a one-match suspension and he is expected to be recalled in midfield at the expense of Jacob Steen Christensen.
Linton Maina and Sargis Adamyan could retain their places in attack, although Schultz may consider replacing the former with Luca Waldschmidt, who scored in Koln's last home game against Bochum.
As for Darmstadt, they are having to cope without Marvin Mehlem (calf), Fabian Nurnberger, Fraser Hornby (both ankle), Fabian Holland (knee) and Braydon Manu (muscle) due to injury, while backup goalkeeper Alexander Brunst (muscle) is doubtful.
The absence of Holland is set to see Tobias Kempe move into a deeper midfield position alongside Klaus Gjasula, while Julian Justvan could deputise in the number 10 role behind attackers Oscar Vilhelmsson and Tim Skarke.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Thielmann, Hubers, Chabot, Finkgrafe; Alidou, Martel, Ljubicic, Kainz; Adamyan, Waldschmidt
SV Darmstadt 98 possible starting lineup:
Schuhen; Riedel, Klarer, Maglica; Bader, Kempe, Gjasula, Karic; Justvan; Skarke, Vilhelmsson
We say: FC Koln 1-0 SV Darmstadt 98
There is little to separate these two out-of-form teams fighting for their lives ahead of Saturday's must-win contest, but the writing appears to be on the wall for Darmstadt and we can see Koln claiming a slender victory to seal the visitors' fate.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Oliver Thomas
