We said: Charlton Athletic 1-2 Birmingham City
After three straight defeats and a poor start against Bristol Rovers on Tuesday, we are expecting a response from Charlton at The Valley this weekend.
That being said, Birmingham are in sensational form and should, on paper, be comfortable winners in the capital, although we believe that Blues will only manage a narrow success.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 45%. A win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 29.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.09%) and 0-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Charlton Athletic win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.