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League One
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League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 15, 2024 at 8pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Burton Albion

Derby
3 - 2
Burton Albion

Barkhuizen (29'), Collins (49'), Hourihane (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Seddon (54'), Hugill (65')
Oshilaja (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 0-1 Bradford
Tuesday, January 9 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Burton Albion

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Blackpool 2-1 Burton Albion
Wednesday, January 10 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Derby County 2-0 Burton Albion

 Derby cruised to a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture in August, and we think that they will claim another win against Burton to move into the League One promotion places. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 70.39%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 11.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
70.39% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 17.65% (0.0030000000000001 0) 11.95% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 50.86% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.62% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)39.37% (0.010000000000005 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.28% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)61.71% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.99% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)10.01% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.95% (-0.0099999999999909 -0.01)33.05% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.51% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)43.48% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.3% (-0.004999999999999 -0)79.7% (0.0050000000000097 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 70.38%
    Burton Albion 11.95%
    Draw 17.65%
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
2-0 @ 11.52%
1-0 @ 10.01%
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.0010000000000012 0)
3-0 @ 8.85% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 7.37% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 5.09% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 4.24% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 2.34% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.95% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.77% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 4.58%
Total : 70.38%
1-1 @ 8.34% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-0 @ 4.35% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 4%
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 17.65%
0-1 @ 3.63% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-2 @ 3.47% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 1.51%
2-3 @ 1.11%
1-3 @ 0.96%
Other @ 1.27%
Total : 11.95%

How you voted: Derby vs Burton Albion

Derby County
82.9%
Draw
8.6%
Burton Albion
8.6%
35
Head to Head
Aug 12, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 2
Burton Albion
0-3
Derby

Seddon (2'), Maamria (3')
Collins (6'), Hourihane (78'), Washington (84')
Mendez-Laing (45+2'), Hourihane (66'), Cashin (90+6')
> Preview
Apr 22, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 44
Derby
1-0
Burton Albion
McGoldrick (63' pen.)
Dec 10, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 21
Burton Albion
1-1
Derby
Adeboyejo (79')
Collins (23')
> Preview
Jul 20, 2019 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Burton Albion
2-5
Derby
Brayford (22'), Fraser (51')
Waghorn (16', 28', 37'), Bennett (47'), Bird (93')
Apr 14, 2018 3pm
Burton Albion
3-1
Derby
Boyce (24'), Murphy (44'), Akins (68')
Buxton (39'), Brayford (63'), Akpan (77')
Nugent (29')
Huddlestone (49')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham24175242172556
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe26166452282454
3Wrexham26156538201851
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield25146539211848
5Barnsley2612684036442
6Stockport CountyStockport26118740281241
7Reading2512584036441
8Leyton Orient25115932221038
9Bolton WanderersBolton26115103941-238
10Charlton AthleticCharlton2510783126537
11Mansfield TownMansfield2411493228437
12Lincoln CityLincoln269892930-135
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham259792826234
14Exeter CityExeter2695122933-432
15Blackpool2571083437-331
16Stevenage248791922-331
17Wigan AthleticWigan2586112426-230
18Bristol Rovers2584132539-1428
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2676134247-527
20Northampton TownNorthampton2668122440-1626
21Crawley TownCrawley2456132544-1921
22Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2555152645-1920
23Burton Albion2639142340-1718
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge2546152445-2118
> League One Full Table


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