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League One
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League One | Gameweek 24
Dec 26, 2023 at 3pm UK
The DW Stadium
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Wigan
0 - 1
Derby


Morrison (14'), Adeeko (15'), Clare (36'), Lang (45')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Nelson (19')
Hourihane (7'), Mendez-Laing (35'), Collins (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Wigan Athletic and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wigan Athletic

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Reading 2-0 Wigan
Saturday, December 23 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 3-1 Lincoln
Thursday, December 21 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Wigan Athletic 1-2 Derby County

 Looking at past results between Wigan and Derby County, we anticipate a cagey Boxing Day at the DW Stadium. Warne's men head into the game as one of the most in-form sides in the division and we fancy them claiming all three points in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 49.38%. A win for Wigan Athletic had a probability of 25.61% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.46%) and 0-2 (8.82%). The likeliest Wigan Athletic win was 1-0 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Derby County in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Wigan AthleticDrawDerby County
25.61% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02) 25.01% (0.0030000000000001 0) 49.38% (0.016000000000005 0.02)
Both teams to score 52.39% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.75% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)50.25% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.79% (-0.032 -0.03)72.2% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Wigan Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.79% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)34.21% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.09% (-0.038 -0.04)70.9% (0.036999999999992 0.04)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.63% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)20.37% (0.0059999999999967 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.22% (-0.012 -0.01)52.77% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Wigan Athletic 25.61%
    Derby County 49.37%
    Draw 25%
Wigan AthleticDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 7.47% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-1 @ 6.38% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-0 @ 4.01% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 2.28% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-2 @ 1.82% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 1.43% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 25.61%
1-1 @ 11.89%
0-0 @ 6.97% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.08% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 0.96% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25%
0-1 @ 11.08% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 9.46%
0-2 @ 8.82% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
1-3 @ 5.02% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-3 @ 4.68% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 2.69% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
1-4 @ 2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-4 @ 1.86% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 1.07% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 49.37%

How you voted: Wigan vs Derby

Wigan Athletic
25.0%
Draw
25.0%
Derby County
50.0%
8
Head to Head
Aug 5, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 1
Derby
1-2
Wigan
Forsyth (57')
Smith (37'), Cashin (48')
Wyke (37', 72')
Hughes (49'), Smith (88')
> Preview
Dec 26, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 24
Wigan
1-1
Derby
Garner (81')
Evans (61')
Waghorn (93')
Bielik (22'), Bogle (30'), Lawrence (43')
> Match Report
Oct 23, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
Derby
1-0
Wigan
Shinnie (91')
Shinnie (64'), Malone (65')

Robinson (51'), Macleod (92')
> Match Report
Mar 5, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 33
Derby
2-1
Wigan
Bennett (62'), Malone (78')
Johnson (41'), Bennett (59'), Wilson (63'), Tomori (71')
Massey (25')
Morsy (37')
> Match Report
Dec 8, 2018 3pm
Gameweek 21
Wigan
0-1
Derby

Morsy (32')
Naismith (15')
Marriott (21')
Wilson (32'), Bryson (76')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham26186244182660
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe28177454292558
3Wrexham28157641241752
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield27146739231648
5Stockport CountyStockport28138743281547
6Leyton Orient27135940241644
7Bolton WanderersBolton28135104342144
8Charlton AthleticCharlton2712783426843
9Barnsley28126104139242
10Reading27125104241141
11Lincoln CityLincoln28108103433138
12Mansfield TownMansfield26114113432237
13Blackpool2791083938137
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham27107103231137
15Stevenage2610792324-137
16Wigan AthleticWigan2796122627-133
17Exeter CityExeter2895143242-1032
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
20Northampton TownNorthampton2869132543-1827
21Burton Albion2859143044-1424
22Crawley TownCrawley2666142646-2024
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2756162849-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2755172647-2120
> League One Full Table


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