League One | Gameweek 21
Dec 10, 2022 at 2pm UK
Pirelli Stadium
Burton Albion1 - 1Derby
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: MK Dons 1-1 Burton Albion
Saturday, December 3 at 12.30pm in League One
Saturday, December 3 at 12.30pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 0-0 Sheff Weds
Saturday, December 3 at 12.30pm in League One
Saturday, December 3 at 12.30pm in League One
We said: Burton Albion 1-1 Derby County
Both teams have drawn a lot of their recent games, so we expect this one to be no different, despite the disparity in the league standings. Burton have shown signs of improvement under Maamria, and managed to get a point at home against first-placed Plymouth Argyle, so they have the ability to do the same on Saturday. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 44.79%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 1-0 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Burton Albion | Draw | Derby County |
30.01% ( -0.6) | 25.2% ( 0.07) | 44.79% ( 0.54) |
| Both teams to score 55.02% ( -0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.68% ( -0.56) | 48.32% ( 0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.54% ( -0.52) | 70.47% ( 0.52) |
| Burton Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.16% ( -0.7) | 29.84% ( 0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.07% ( -0.85) | 65.93% ( 0.86) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.42% ( 0.01) | 21.58% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.33% ( 0.01) | 54.67% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
Burton Albion 30.01%
Derby County 44.79%
Draw 25.2%
| Burton Albion | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 7.79% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 4.71% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 2.91% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.26% Total : 30.01% | 1-1 @ 11.94% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.44% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.2% | 0-1 @ 9.88% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 9.16% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 7.57% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 4.68% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.87% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.79% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.44% Total : 44.79% |
How you voted: Burton Albion vs Derby
Burton Albion
16.0%Draw
24.0%Derby County
60.0%25
Head to Head
Apr 14, 2018 3pm
Dec 2, 2017 3pm
Feb 21, 2017 7.45pm
Aug 26, 2016 7.45pm
Form Guide
