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Burton Albion
League One | Gameweek 21
Dec 10, 2022 at 2pm UK
Pirelli Stadium
Derby logo

Burton Albion
1 - 1
Derby

Adeboyejo (79')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Collins (23')
Roberts (46'), Cashin (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Burton Albion and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 0-0 Sheff Weds
Saturday, December 3 at 12.30pm in League One

We said: Burton Albion 1-1 Derby County

Both teams have drawn a lot of their recent games, so we expect this one to be no different, despite the disparity in the league standings. Burton have shown signs of improvement under Maamria, and managed to get a point at home against first-placed Plymouth Argyle, so they have the ability to do the same on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 44.79%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 1-0 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Burton AlbionDrawDerby County
30.01% (-0.601 -0.6) 25.2% (0.068999999999999 0.07) 44.79% (0.536 0.54)
Both teams to score 55.02% (-0.541 -0.54)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.68% (-0.562 -0.56)48.32% (0.567 0.57)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.54% (-0.517 -0.52)70.47% (0.521 0.52)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.16% (-0.69699999999999 -0.7)29.84% (0.7 0.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.07% (-0.851 -0.85)65.93% (0.855 0.86)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.42% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)21.58% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.33% (0.012 0.01)54.67% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Burton Albion 30.01%
    Derby County 44.79%
    Draw 25.2%
Burton AlbionDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 7.79% (0.031 0.03)
2-1 @ 7.22% (-0.111 -0.11)
2-0 @ 4.71% (-0.073 -0.07)
3-1 @ 2.91% (-0.103 -0.1)
3-2 @ 2.23% (-0.079 -0.08)
3-0 @ 1.9% (-0.067 -0.07)
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 30.01%
1-1 @ 11.94% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 6.44% (0.15 0.15)
2-2 @ 5.54% (-0.084000000000001 -0.08)
3-3 @ 1.14% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.2%
0-1 @ 9.88% (0.231 0.23)
1-2 @ 9.16% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-2 @ 7.57% (0.178 0.18)
1-3 @ 4.68% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
0-3 @ 3.87% (0.092 0.09)
2-3 @ 2.83% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.79% (0.008 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.48% (0.035 0.04)
2-4 @ 1.09% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 2.44%
Total : 44.79%

How you voted: Burton Albion vs Derby

Burton Albion
16.0%
Draw
24.0%
Derby County
60.0%
25
Head to Head
Jul 20, 2019 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Burton Albion
2-5
Derby
Brayford (22'), Fraser (51')
Waghorn (16', 28', 37'), Bennett (47'), Bird (93')
Apr 14, 2018 3pm
Burton Albion
3-1
Derby
Boyce (24'), Murphy (44'), Akins (68')
Buxton (39'), Brayford (63'), Akpan (77')
Nugent (29')
Huddlestone (49')
Dec 2, 2017 3pm
Feb 21, 2017 7.45pm
Aug 26, 2016 7.45pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham25176243182557
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe27167452282455
3Wrexham27157539211852
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield26146639221748
5Stockport CountyStockport27128742281444
6Barnsley2712694037342
7Leyton Orient26125934221241
8Reading2612594038241
9Bolton WanderersBolton27125104041-141
10Charlton AthleticCharlton2611783226640
11Lincoln CityLincoln2710893431338
12Mansfield TownMansfield25114103431337
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham2697103030034
14Blackpool2681083738-134
15Stevenage259792022-234
16Wigan AthleticWigan2696112626033
17Exeter CityExeter2795133036-632
18Bristol Rovers2684142541-1628
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2776144352-927
20Northampton TownNorthampton2769122440-1627
21Burton Albion2749142742-1521
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2656152747-2021
23Crawley TownCrawley2556142546-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2655162646-2020


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