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League One
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League One | Gameweek 17
Nov 11, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Barnsley

Derby
3 - 0
Barnsley

Collins (35' pen., 63'), Forsyth (48')
Collins (17'), Forsyth (36')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Russell (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Barnsley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 4-1 Wolves U21s
Wednesday, November 8 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Barnsley

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Barnsley 3-3 Horsham
Friday, November 3 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

We said: Derby County 1-1 Barnsley

 Despite both sides finding themselves in and around the playoff places at this early stage, neither are yet to truly kick into gear so far this term, and we do not envisage either team outclassing the other at Pride Park on Saturday and instead opt for a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.96%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 23.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBarnsley
51.96% (0.015000000000001 0.02) 24.59% (0.0010000000000012 0) 23.45% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 51.46% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.61% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)50.39% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)72.32% (0.012999999999991 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.62% (0.0019999999999953 0)19.37% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.83%51.17%
Barnsley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.83% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)36.17% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.04% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)72.95% (0.021999999999991 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 51.96%
    Barnsley 23.45%
    Draw 24.58%
Derby CountyDrawBarnsley
1-0 @ 11.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.6%
2-0 @ 9.44% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.25%
3-0 @ 5.16% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.67% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 2.16%
4-0 @ 2.12% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-2 @ 1.1%
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 51.96%
1-1 @ 11.69%
0-0 @ 7.01% (0.0040000000000004 0)
2-2 @ 4.88% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.58%
0-1 @ 7.13%
1-2 @ 5.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 3.62% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.02% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 1.65% (-0.002 -0)
0-3 @ 1.23% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 23.45%

How you voted: Derby vs Barnsley

Derby County
57.1%
Draw
14.3%
Barnsley
28.6%
7
Head to Head
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 34
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4-1
Derby
Cole (21', 45+2'), Phillips (33'), Thomas (90+4')
McGoldrick (35')
Jan 8, 2023 12.30pm
Third Round
Derby
3-0
Barnsley
Collins (45+1' pen.), Barkhuizen (60'), Knight (79')
> Preview
Aug 13, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 3
Derby
2-1
Barnsley
McCarthy (8' og.), Mendez-Laing (35')
Cashin (47')
Benson (64')
McCarthy (62')
Mar 5, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 36
Derby
2-0
Barnsley
Morrison (22', 47')

Wolfe (7'), Morris (90+4')
> Preview
Nov 3, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Barnsley
2-1
Derby
Adeboyejo (39'), Leya Iseka (50')
Woodrow (26'), Brittain (64'), Andersen (81')
Baldock (24')
Morrison (15'), Buchanan (50')
> Preview
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe20135243222144
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham20125330131741
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield20123534181639
5Stockport CountyStockport21106534221236
6Reading199463028231
7Bolton WanderersBolton199462829-131
8Barnsley208662926330
9Lincoln CityLincoln207762625128
10Blackpool197572931-226
11Mansfield TownMansfield187472222025
12Stevenage187471517-225
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2073103837124
14Charlton AthleticCharlton196671819-124
15Exeter CityExeter197391721-424
16Wigan AthleticWigan196581716123
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham186571920-123
18Leyton Orient196491920-122
19Northampton TownNorthampton205692129-821
20Bristol Rovers1963101728-1121
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2045112035-1517
23Burton Albion1926111630-1412
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1932141939-2011
> League One Full Table


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