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League One
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League One | Gameweek 17
Nov 11, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Barnsley

Derby
3 - 0
Barnsley

Collins (35' pen., 63'), Forsyth (48')
Collins (17'), Forsyth (36')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Russell (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Barnsley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 4-1 Wolves U21s
Wednesday, November 8 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Barnsley

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Barnsley 3-3 Horsham
Friday, November 3 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

We said: Derby County 1-1 Barnsley

 Despite both sides finding themselves in and around the playoff places at this early stage, neither are yet to truly kick into gear so far this term, and we do not envisage either team outclassing the other at Pride Park on Saturday and instead opt for a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.96%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 23.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBarnsley
51.96% (0.015000000000001 0.02) 24.59% (0.0010000000000012 0) 23.45% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 51.46% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.61% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)50.39% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)72.32% (0.012999999999991 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.62% (0.0019999999999953 0)19.37% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.83%51.17%
Barnsley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.83% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)36.17% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.04% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)72.95% (0.021999999999991 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 51.96%
    Barnsley 23.45%
    Draw 24.58%
Derby CountyDrawBarnsley
1-0 @ 11.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.6%
2-0 @ 9.44% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.25%
3-0 @ 5.16% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.67% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 2.16%
4-0 @ 2.12% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-2 @ 1.1%
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 51.96%
1-1 @ 11.69%
0-0 @ 7.01% (0.0040000000000004 0)
2-2 @ 4.88% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.58%
0-1 @ 7.13%
1-2 @ 5.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 3.62% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.02% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 1.65% (-0.002 -0)
0-3 @ 1.23% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 23.45%

How you voted: Derby vs Barnsley

Derby County
57.1%
Draw
14.3%
Barnsley
28.6%
7
Head to Head
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Gameweek 34
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4-1
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Cole (21', 45+2'), Phillips (33'), Thomas (90+4')
McGoldrick (35')
Jan 8, 2023 12.30pm
Third Round
Derby
3-0
Barnsley
Collins (45+1' pen.), Barkhuizen (60'), Knight (79')
> Preview
Aug 13, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 3
Derby
2-1
Barnsley
McCarthy (8' og.), Mendez-Laing (35')
Cashin (47')
Benson (64')
McCarthy (62')
Mar 5, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 36
Derby
2-0
Barnsley
Morrison (22', 47')

Wolfe (7'), Morris (90+4')
> Preview
Nov 3, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Barnsley
2-1
Derby
Adeboyejo (39'), Leya Iseka (50')
Woodrow (26'), Brittain (64'), Andersen (81')
Baldock (24')
Morrison (15'), Buchanan (50')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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