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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 42.89%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 30.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Derby County in this match.
Result | ||
Port Vale | Draw | Derby County |
30.62% ( 0.81) | 26.5% ( 0.31) | 42.89% ( -1.12) |
Both teams to score 51.2% ( -0.55) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.58% ( -0.9) | 53.42% ( 0.91) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.05% ( -0.77) | 74.95% ( 0.78) |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.99% ( 0.12) | 32.01% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.52% ( 0.14) | 68.48% ( -0.13) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.31% ( -0.95) | 24.69% ( 0.96) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.78% ( -1.35) | 59.23% ( 1.36) |
Score Analysis |
Port Vale | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 9% ( 0.35) 2-1 @ 7.17% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 2.72% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.75% Total : 30.62% | 1-1 @ 12.59% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 7.9% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.49% | 0-1 @ 11.05% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 8.81% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 7.73% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 4.11% ( -0.19) 0-3 @ 3.61% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.11) 0-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.54% Total : 42.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
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