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Milan logo
Coppa Italia | Round of 16
Jan 2, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Cagliari logo

AC Milan
4 - 1
Cagliari

Jovic (29', 42'), Traore (50'), Leao (90+1')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Azzi (87')
Di Pardo (59'), Deiola (70'), Azzi (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Coppa Italia clash between AC Milan and Cagliari, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions
Last Game: AC Milan 1-0 Sassuolo
Saturday, December 30 at 5pm in Serie A

Cagliari

All competitions
Coppa Italia
Last Game: Cagliari 0-0 Empoli
Saturday, December 30 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 3-1 Cagliari

 Given Cagliari's defensive deficiencies - clearly apparent when losing at home to Milan earlier this season - and their lack of fortitude when on the road, even a much-changed Milan side should safely secure a place in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 58.43%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 19.04%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawCagliari
58.43% (0.0040000000000049 0) 22.52% (-0.0039999999999978 -0) 19.04% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Both teams to score 51.65% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.98% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)47.01% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.74% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)69.26% (-0.012 -0.01)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.22% (0.0010000000000048 0)15.77% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.1% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)44.9% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)
Cagliari Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.33% (0.0030000000000001 0)38.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.59% (0.0030000000000001 0)75.41% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 58.43%
    Cagliari 19.04%
    Draw 22.52%
AC MilanDrawCagliari
1-0 @ 11.26%
2-0 @ 10.4%
2-1 @ 9.88%
3-0 @ 6.4% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 6.09% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 2.96% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 2.89% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 2.81% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.34% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 1.09%
5-1 @ 1.04% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 58.43%
1-1 @ 10.7%
0-0 @ 6.1% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 4.7%
3-3 @ 0.92% (0.001 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 22.52%
0-1 @ 5.79% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-2 @ 5.08% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 2.75%
1-3 @ 1.61%
2-3 @ 1.49%
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 19.04%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Cagliari

AC Milan
90.5%
Draw
4.8%
Cagliari
4.8%
84
Head to Head
Sep 27, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 6
Cagliari
1-3
AC Milan
Luvumbo (29')
Wieteska (42'), Zappa (53'), Oristanio (78')
Okafor (40'), Tomori (45'), Loftus-Cheek (60')
Loftus-Cheek (48')
> Preview
Mar 19, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 30
Cagliari
0-1
AC Milan

Bellanova (77')
Bennacer (59')
> Preview
Aug 29, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 2
AC Milan
4-1
Cagliari
Tonali (12'), Leao (17'), Giroud (24', 43' pen.)
Diaz (73')
Deiola (15')
Henrique (5'), Deiola (38'), Strootman (41'), Godin (62'), Nandez (84')
> Preview
May 16, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 37
AC Milan
0-0
Cagliari
Kjaer (33'), Calabria (58')
Marin (40'), Carboni (45+1')
> Preview
Jan 18, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 18
Cagliari
0-2
AC Milan

Godin (83'), Ceppitelli (88')
Ibrahimovic (7' pen., 52')
Romagnoli (39'), Saelemaekers (68')
Saelemaekers (74')
> Preview
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