Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 59.75%. A win for Bournemouth had a probability of 20.4% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.73%) and 3-1 (7.13%). The likeliest Bournemouth win was 1-2 (5.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Bournemouth |
59.75% ( -0.01) | 19.85% ( 0.01) | 20.4% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 63.45% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.38% ( -0.02) | 32.61% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.72% ( -0.02) | 54.28% ( 0.02) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.25% ( -0.01) | 10.75% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.27% ( -0.02) | 34.72% ( 0.02) |
Bournemouth Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.09% ( -0.01) | 28.9% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.22% ( -0.01) | 64.78% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Bournemouth |
2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.73% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.13% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.93% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.75% 3-2 @ 4.43% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.98% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.2% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.47% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.77% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.43% ( -0) 5-2 @ 1.1% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 3.23% Total : 59.75% | 1-1 @ 8.6% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.95% 0-0 @ 3.11% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0) Other @ 0.36% Total : 19.85% | 1-2 @ 5.34% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.86% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.46% 0-2 @ 2.39% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.21% ( 0) 0-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 3.15% Total : 20.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 47 | 19 | 28 | 46 |
2 | Arsenal | 20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 40 |
3 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 40 |
4 | Chelsea | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 36 |
5 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 |
6 | Manchester CityMan City | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 34 |
7 | Bournemouth | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 33 |
8 | Aston Villa | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 32 |
9 | Fulham | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 30 |
10 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 28 |
11 | Brentford | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 35 | 3 | 27 |
12 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 30 | 12 | 24 |
13 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 23 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 23 |
15 | Crystal Palace | 20 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 21 |
16 | Everton | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 17 |
17 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 16 |
18 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 16 |
19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 14 |
20 | Southampton | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 44 | -32 | 6 |
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