Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundee win with a probability of 42.19%. A win for Motherwell had a probability of 33.3% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundee win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Motherwell win was 1-2 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dundee would win this match.
Result | ||
Dundee | Draw | Motherwell |
42.19% ( 0.03) | 24.51% ( 0.23) | 33.3% ( -0.27) |
Both teams to score 58.83% ( -0.93) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.01% ( -1.18) | 43.98% ( 1.18) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.63% ( -1.16) | 66.36% ( 1.16) |
Dundee Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.05% ( -0.48) | 20.94% ( 0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.31% ( -0.76) | 53.68% ( 0.76) |
Motherwell Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.41% ( -0.72) | 25.58% ( 0.72) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.54% ( -0.99) | 60.46% ( 0.99) |
Score Analysis |
Dundee | Draw | Motherwell |
2-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.38% ( 0.31) 2-0 @ 6.55% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 4.65% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.71% Total : 42.19% | 1-1 @ 11.41% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.27) 3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.5% | 1-2 @ 7.78% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.3% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 4.98% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 3.54% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.52% Total : 33.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Celtic | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 44 | 4 | 40 | 43 |
2 | Aberdeen | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 34 |
3 | RangersRangers | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 32 |
4 | Dundee UnitedDundee Utd | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 24 |
5 | Motherwell | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 22 |
6 | Dundee | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 19 |
7 | St Mirren | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 18 |
8 | Ross County | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 15 |
9 | St Johnstone | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 14 |
10 | Kilmarnock | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 14 |
11 | Hearts | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
12 | Hibernian | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 12 |
> Scottish Premiership Full Table |