Primeira Liga | Gameweek 5
Sep 14, 2024 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho
We said: Famalicao 1-0 Gil Vicente
Conclusions cannot be drawn from Famalicao winning two on the trot on their turf — having triumphed in fewer than half of 17 home games last season (six wins, six draws and five defeats) — due to the small sample size.
One thing that has stayed the same is Gil Vicente's wretched away record — they lost 12 on the road in 2023-24, drawing two and notching two victories — and have followed that with a 3-0 loss and goalless encounter this term, leaving little choice but to back Fama for a marginal success.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 46.12% . A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 26.1% .
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.76% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.23%) and 2-1 (8.64%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.87%) , while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (9.59%) . The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood .
Result Famalicao Draw Gil Vicente 46.12% ( -0.09) 27.78% ( -0.05) 26.1% ( 0.14)
Both teams to score 44.89% ( 0.23)
39.8% ( 0.24) 60.2% ( -0.23)
19.61% ( 0.18) 80.38% ( -0.18)
73.87% ( 0.07) 26.13% ( -0.07)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 38.8% ( 0.09) 61.19% ( -0.09)
60.76% ( 0.25) 39.24% ( -0.25)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 24.05% ( 0.23) 75.95% ( -0.23)
Famalicao 46.12%
Gil Vicente 26.1%
Draw 27.77%
Famalicao Draw Gil Vicente 1-0 @ 13.76% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 9.23% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.87% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.39% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 2% Total : 46.12% 1-1 @ 12.87% 0-0 @ 10.25% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.61% Total : 27.77% 0-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.02% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.47% Total : 26.1%
How you voted: Famalicao vs Gil Vicente
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rhs 2.0
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