Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 43.97%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 32.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.55%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.