Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.36%. A win for Girona had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Girona win was 1-2 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Girona |
50.36% ( -0.04) | 23.12% ( 0.01) | 26.53% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 59.51% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.75% ( -0.02) | 41.25% ( 0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.36% ( -0.03) | 63.64% ( 0.03) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.47% ( -0.02) | 16.53% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.72% ( -0.04) | 46.28% ( 0.05) |
Girona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.29% ( 0.01) | 28.71% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.47% ( 0.01) | 64.53% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Girona |
2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.54% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.69% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.76% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.61% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.59% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.59% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.08% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 3.36% Total : 50.36% | 1-1 @ 10.65% 2-2 @ 5.99% 0-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.5% ( -0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.11% | 1-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.92% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.7% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.49% 0-3 @ 1.54% ( 0) Other @ 3.46% Total : 26.53% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 46 |
2 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 34 | 13 | 21 | 44 |
3 | Barcelona | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 39 |
4 | Athletic Bilbao | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 39 |
5 | Villarreal | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 33 |
6 | Mallorca | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 30 |
7 | Real Sociedad | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 28 |
8 | GironaGirona | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 28 |
9 | Rayo Vallecano | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 26 |
10 | Osasuna | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 26 |
11 | Sevilla | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
12 | Real BetisBetis | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 25 |
13 | Celta Vigo | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 24 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 22 |
15 | Leganes | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 22 |
16 | Getafe | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 20 |
17 | AlavesAlaves | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 20 |
18 | Espanyol | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 19 |
19 | Valencia | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 16 |
20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 15 |
> La Liga Full Table |