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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Guinea national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 12, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara (Abidjan)
Ethiopia national football team

Guinea
4 - 1
Ethiopia

Guirassy (18' pen., 38', 45+2'), Cisse (48')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Markneh (53')
Habtamu Aregawi (18'), Markneh (54')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Guinea and Ethiopia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guinea

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea 1-2 Tanzania
Tuesday, September 10 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Ethiopia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Ethiopia 0-2 Congo DR
Monday, September 9 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Guinea 2-0 Ethiopia

 Guinea might have struggled in their recent matches, but they still have enough quality to overcome Ethiopia, and while we expect the visitors to put up a good fight, we are backing the hosts to emerge victorious at the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 63.7%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 13.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.21%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (6.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.

Result
GuineaDrawEthiopia
63.7% (0.196 0.2) 23.19% (-0.114 -0.11) 13.1% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
Both teams to score 37.78% (0.076999999999998 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.03% (0.227 0.23)58.97% (-0.23099999999999 -0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.55% (0.175 0.17)79.44% (-0.178 -0.18)
Guinea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.81% (0.155 0.16)18.19% (-0.158 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.81% (0.26600000000001 0.27)49.18% (-0.269 -0.27)
Ethiopia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
46.18% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)53.82% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.84% (0.0019999999999989 0)87.16% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Score Analysis
    Guinea 63.69%
    Ethiopia 13.1%
    Draw 23.19%
GuineaDrawEthiopia
1-0 @ 16.68% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
2-0 @ 14.21% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 8.81% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-0 @ 8.08% (0.052 0.05)
3-1 @ 5.01% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
4-0 @ 3.44% (0.039 0.04)
4-1 @ 2.13% (0.025 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.55% (0.011 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.17% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 63.69%
1-1 @ 10.33% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
0-0 @ 9.79% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
2-2 @ 2.73% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 23.19%
0-1 @ 6.06% (-0.052 -0.05)
1-2 @ 3.2% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.88% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 13.1%

How you voted: Guinea vs Ethiopia

Guinea
52.2%
Draw
17.4%
Ethiopia
30.4%
23
Head to Head
Mar 27, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
Ethiopia
2-3
Guinea
Markneh (34'), Jima (90+5')
Keita (4'), Moriba (42'), Guilavogui (70')
Mar 24, 2023 8.30pm
Group Stage
Guinea
2-0
Ethiopia
Kamano (39'), Bayo (73')
rhs 2.0
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