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Major League Soccer
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer
Oct 3, 2024 at 1.30am UK
BBVA Compass Stadium
New England Revolution

Houston
2 - 1
New England

Ponce (50'), Sviatchenko (68')
Steres (8'), Ponce (90+6')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Gil (54' pen.)
Miller (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Major League Soccer clash between Houston Dynamo and New England Revolution, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Houston Dynamo

All competitions
Last Game: Seattle 1-0 Houston
Sunday, September 29 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

New England Revolution

All competitions
Last Game: New England 1-0 Nashville
Sunday, September 29 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Houston Dynamo 2-1 New England Revolution

 While New England have dominated this fixture in recent seasons, their away form in particular this season has been well below the norm, and we feel they will struggle to contain the Dynamos on their home patch in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 64.51%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for New England Revolution had a probability of 16.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.25%) and 1-0 (8.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.65%), while for a New England Revolution win it was 1-2 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Houston Dynamo in this match.

Result
Houston DynamoDrawNew England Revolution
64.51% (0.072000000000003 0.07) 19.03% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 16.45% (-0.077000000000002 -0.08)
Both teams to score 58.49% (-0.2 -0.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.48% (-0.179 -0.18)35.52% (0.179 0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.43% (-0.198 -0.2)57.56% (0.197 0.2)
Houston Dynamo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.6% (-0.030999999999992 -0.03)10.4% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.06% (-0.073000000000008 -0.07)33.93% (0.073 0.07)
New England Revolution Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.28% (-0.20099999999999 -0.2)34.72% (0.201 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.55% (-0.212 -0.21)71.45% (0.211 0.21)
Score Analysis
    Houston Dynamo 64.51%
    New England Revolution 16.45%
    Draw 19.03%
Houston DynamoDrawNew England Revolution
2-1 @ 9.78% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.25% (0.057 0.06)
1-0 @ 8.17% (0.062000000000001 0.06)
3-1 @ 7.38% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-0 @ 6.98% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
4-1 @ 4.18% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
4-0 @ 3.95% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.91% (-0.024 -0.02)
4-2 @ 2.21% (-0.016 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.89% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.79% (0.004 0)
5-2 @ 1% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 4.03%
Total : 64.51%
1-1 @ 8.65% (0.019 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.18% (-0.025 -0.03)
0-0 @ 3.61% (0.032 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.38% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 19.03%
1-2 @ 4.57% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-1 @ 3.82% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.02% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.83% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.61% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 16.45%

How you voted: Houston vs New England

Houston Dynamo
93.8%
Draw
6.3%
New England Revolution
0.0%
16
Head to Head
Mar 5, 2023 12.30am
New England
3-0
Houston
Borrero (42'), Wood (53'), Bye (65')
> Preview
Sep 14, 2022 1.30am
Houston
3-1
New England
Quintero (37'), Picault (76' pen., 85')
Gil (63' pen.)
> Preview
Jul 4, 2020 1.30am
Gameweek 27
Houston
P-P
New England
Jun 30, 2019 12.30am
Gameweek 21
New England
2-1
Houston
Delamea Mlinar (51'), Bunbury (91')
Delamea Mlinar (45'), Farrell (54'), Agudelo (83')
Ceren (25')
Quioto (43'), Cabezas (82'), Fuenmayor (86')
Apr 1, 2018 1.30am
Gameweek 6
Houston
0-2
New England

Machado (69'), Fuenmayor (86')
Beasley (35')
Bunbury (15'), Penilla (71')
Somi (52'), Fagundez (64')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS

Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami34228479493074
2Columbus Crew34199672403266
3FC CincinnatiCincinnati341851158481059
4Orlando City34157125950952
5Charlotte FCCharlotte FC34149114637951
6New York City FCNY City34148125449550
7New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls34111495550547
8CF MontrealMontreal341110134864-1643
9Atlanta UnitedAtlanta341010144649-340
10DC United341010145270-1840
11Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia34910156255737
12Toronto34114194061-2137
13Nashville SCNashville3499163854-1636
14New England RevolutionNew England3494213774-3731
15Chicago Fire3479184062-2230

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Los Angeles FCLos Angeles34197863432064
2Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy34197869501964
3Real Salt LakeSalt Lake341611765481759
4Seattle SoundersSeattle34169951351657
5Houston DynamoHouston34159104739854
6Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd34157125849952
7Colorado RapidsColorado34155146160150
8Portland TimbersPortland341211116556947
9Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver34138135249347
10Austin FCAustin34119143948-942
11Dallas34118155456-241
12St Louis City34813135063-1337
13Sporting Kansas CityKansas3487195166-1531
14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes3463254178-3721
> Full Version


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