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Ligue 1
Lyon
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Gerard Houllier
Marseille

Lyon
2 - 3
Marseille

Caleta-Car (53'), Cherki (90+3')
Mata (45+1'), Lacazette (59'), Caleta-Car (90+3'), Cherki (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Lirola (69'), Garcia (82'), Rowe (90+5')
Balerdi (1'), De Zerbi (45+8'), Maupay (90+3')
Balerdi (5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lyon and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lyon

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Lens 0-0 Lyon
Sunday, September 15 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-0 Nice
Saturday, September 14 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lyon 1-2 Marseille

 Form can often go out the window in such fiercely-fought derby matches, but the start Marseille have made means they are full value as favourites in this one. Lyon's suspect defence matched against Marseille's prolific attack should give the visitors the edge, despite the fact they will be playing against a raucous atmosphere with no away fans in attendance. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Lyon win was 2-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
LyonDrawMarseille
34.37% (0.134 0.13) 24.21% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01) 41.41% (-0.11 -0.11)
Both teams to score 60.22% (0.098999999999997 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.7% (0.116 0.12)42.31% (-0.104 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.29% (0.114 0.11)64.71% (-0.10300000000001 -0.1)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.83% (0.13200000000001 0.13)24.17% (-0.12 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.51% (0.181 0.18)58.49% (-0.171 -0.17)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.41% (0.00099999999999056 0)20.59% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.87% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)53.13% (0.016999999999996 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Lyon 34.37%
    Marseille 41.41%
    Draw 24.21%
LyonDrawMarseille
2-1 @ 7.93% (0.018 0.02)
1-0 @ 7.07% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.02% (0.013 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.75% (0.022 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.97% (0.017 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.38% (0.014 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.33% (0.013 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 34.37%
1-1 @ 11.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.27% (0.013000000000001 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.98% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.56% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 24.21%
1-2 @ 8.83% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.86% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-2 @ 6.21% (-0.032 -0.03)
1-3 @ 4.65% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.3% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.27% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.84% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 1.3% (0.002 0)
0-4 @ 1.29% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 41.41%

How you voted: Lyon vs Marseille

Lyon
22.9%
Draw
14.4%
Marseille
62.7%
118
Head to Head
Feb 4, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 20
Lyon
1-0
Marseille
Lacazette (37')
O'Brien (40'), Matic (61')

Ounahi (75')
> Preview
Dec 6, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 10
Marseille
3-0
Lyon
Oliveira (21'), Murillo (25'), Aubameyang (55')
Ounahi (49')

Lovren (21'), Diawara (87')
> Preview
Apr 23, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 32
Lyon
1-2
Marseille
Lacazette (68')
Under (44'), Gusto (90+2' og.)
> Preview
Nov 6, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 14
Marseille
1-0
Lyon
Gigot (43')
> Preview
May 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 35
Marseille
0-3
Lyon

Sampaoli (28'), Lopez (57'), Gueye (71')
Lukeba (55'), Dembele (76'), Toko Ekambi (88')
Dembele (60')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG16124044143040
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1693426161030
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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