We said: Mauritania 1-1 Egypt
While Egypt are in exceptional form, they could struggle against Mauritania's aggressive play style.
It would also not be surprising if the visitors struggled in the final third without the presence of Salah, who is both a hub of creativity and a source of goals.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 62.82%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Mauritania had a probability of 14.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.45%) and 1-2 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Mauritania win it was 1-0 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Egypt in this match.