Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 51.27%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 25.73% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.67%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.