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Nottingham Forest logo
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 11, 2025 at 3pm UK
The City Ground
Luton Town

Nott'm Forest
2 - 0
Luton

Yates (40'), Sosa (68')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Nottingham Forest and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wolves 0-3 Nott'm Forest
Monday, January 6 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: QPR 2-1 Luton
Monday, January 6 at 8pm in Championship

We said: Nottingham Forest 2-0 Luton Town

It will be fascinating to see whether Santo opts to go strong or rotate his resources for the visit of Luton, but regardless of what team Forest field, Luton should be heading home disappointed. The Hatters are in disarray on the field, and even if Trollope and Kyle can provide any sort of new manager bounce, the Premier League surprise package should enjoy safe passage into round four. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 30.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Nottingham Forest in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Nottingham Forest.

Result
Nottingham ForestDrawLuton Town
44.1% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06) 25.51% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01) 30.39% (0.061 0.06)
Both teams to score 54.2% (0.052 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.51% (0.052 0.05)49.48% (-0.056000000000004 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.48% (0.045999999999999 0.05)71.52% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Nottingham Forest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.61% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)22.39% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.11% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)55.89% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.83% (0.069999999999993 0.07)30.17% (-0.071999999999999 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.68% (0.082999999999998 0.08)66.32% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Score Analysis
    Nottingham Forest 44.09%
    Luton Town 30.39%
    Draw 25.51%
Nottingham ForestDrawLuton Town
1-0 @ 10.1% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.07% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
2-0 @ 7.57% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.52% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-0 @ 3.77% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.71% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.69% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.41% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.01% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 44.09%
1-1 @ 12.11%
0-0 @ 6.75% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.43% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.08% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.51%
0-1 @ 8.09% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-2 @ 7.26% (0.011 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.85% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.9% (0.01 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.17% (0.008 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.94% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.18%
Total : 30.39%

How you voted: Nott'm Forest vs Luton

Nottingham Forest
92.4%
Luton Town
7.6%
79
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 29
Luton
1-1
Nott'm Forest
Berry (89')
Kabore (30')
Wood (34')
Toffolo (84'), Sels (90')
Oct 21, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 9
Nott'm Forest
2-2
Luton
Wood (48', 76')
Sangare (60'), Gibbs-White (82'), Murillo (90+8')
Ogbene (83'), Adebayo (90+2')
Apr 15, 2022 12.30pm
Gameweek 42
Luton
1-0
Nott'm Forest
Naismith (37' pen.)
Bradley (26'), Naismith (49'), Onyedinma (56'), Burke (63'), Campbell (63'), Shea (69'), Adebayo (90+3')
Bradley (77')

Garner (44'), Davis (63'), Worrall (74'), Figueiredo (90+6')
Nov 23, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
Nott'm Forest
0-0
Luton
Taylor (26'), Colback (47'), McKenna (55')
Colback (61')
Lockyer (45+1'), Ruddock (68'), Bradley (90+3')
Mar 2, 2021 7.45pm
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool19144147192846
2Arsenal20117239182140
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest20124429191040
4Chelsea20106439241536
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle20105534221235
6Manchester CityMan City2010463627934
7Bournemouth209653023733
8Aston Villa209563032-232
9Fulham207943027330
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton2061043029128
11Brentford208393835327
12Tottenham HotspurSpurs20731042301224
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd206592328-523
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham206592439-1523
15Crystal Palace204972128-721
16Everton193881525-1017
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves2044123145-1416
18Ipswich TownIpswich2037102035-1516
19Leicester CityLeicester2035122344-2114
20Southampton2013161244-326


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