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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 47.64%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Luton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Luton Town.
Result | ||
Luton Town | Draw | Derby County |
47.64% ( 1.01) | 26.1% ( 0.01) | 26.25% ( -1.02) |
Both teams to score 49.63% ( -0.8) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.87% ( -0.66) | 54.13% ( 0.66) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.45% ( -0.56) | 75.55% ( 0.55) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.27% ( 0.18) | 22.72% ( -0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.6% ( 0.26) | 56.39% ( -0.27) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.23% ( -1.19) | 35.77% ( 1.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.46% ( -1.24) | 72.54% ( 1.24) |
Score Analysis |
Luton Town | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 12.04% ( 0.37) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.92% ( 0.32) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.93% Total : 47.64% | 1-1 @ 12.38% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.1% | 0-1 @ 8.36% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.37% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.11) Other @ 1.96% Total : 26.25% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 60 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 58 |
3 | Burnley | 29 | 15 | 12 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 57 |
4 | Sunderland | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 55 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 45 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 29 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 38 | 25 | 13 | 44 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 44 |
8 | Bristol City | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 41 |
9 | Watford | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 41 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 41 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 48 | 42 | 6 | 39 |
12 | Coventry CityCoventry | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 38 |
13 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 38 |
14 | Millwall | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 37 |
15 | Preston North EndPreston | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 37 |
16 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
17 | Swansea CitySwansea | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 34 |
18 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 31 |
19 | Hull City | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
20 | Stoke CityStoke | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 29 |
21 | Portsmouth | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 29 |
22 | Derby CountyDerby | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 27 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 26 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 29 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 22 |
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