MX23RW : Friday, January 31 23:03:22| >> :300:86500:86500:
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Luton Town
Championship | Gameweek 22
Dec 20, 2024 at 8pm UK
Kenilworth Road Stadium
Derby logo

Luton
2 - 1
Derby

Holmes (89'), Morris (90+2')
Andersen (37')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Jackson (58')
Phillips (41'), Elder (67'), Nelson (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Luton Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Blackburn 2-0 Luton
Saturday, December 14 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 4-0 Portsmouth
Friday, December 13 at 8pm in Championship

We said: Luton Town 2-1 Derby County

Despite their overall recent struggles, Luton are still a formidable opponent in front of their Kenilworth Road crowd, especially if the supporters have something to cheer about. Derby are notoriously poor on their second-tier travels and without the talents of Cashin in the side, we envisage the Rams suffering a narrow defeat in Bedfordshire. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 47.64%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Luton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Luton Town.

Result
Luton TownDrawDerby County
47.64% (1.005 1.01) 26.1% (0.0079999999999991 0.01) 26.25% (-1.015 -1.02)
Both teams to score 49.63% (-0.80099999999999 -0.8)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.87% (-0.663 -0.66)54.13% (0.661 0.66)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.45% (-0.557 -0.56)75.55% (0.55499999999999 0.55)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.27% (0.179 0.18)22.72% (-0.18 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.6% (0.264 0.26)56.39% (-0.267 -0.27)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.23% (-1.189 -1.19)35.77% (1.188 1.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.46% (-1.239 -1.24)72.54% (1.238 1.24)
Score Analysis
    Luton Town 47.64%
    Derby County 26.25%
    Draw 26.1%
Luton TownDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 12.04% (0.37 0.37)
2-1 @ 9.17% (0.038 0.04)
2-0 @ 8.92% (0.32 0.32)
3-1 @ 4.53% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.41% (0.181 0.18)
3-2 @ 2.33% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-1 @ 1.68% (0.024 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.63% (0.075 0.08)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 47.64%
1-1 @ 12.38% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.13% (0.208 0.21)
2-2 @ 4.72% (-0.134 -0.13)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 26.1%
0-1 @ 8.36% (-0.054 -0.05)
1-2 @ 6.37% (-0.216 -0.22)
0-2 @ 4.3% (-0.169 -0.17)
1-3 @ 2.18% (-0.149 -0.15)
2-3 @ 1.62% (-0.101 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.47% (-0.109 -0.11)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 26.25%

How you voted: Luton vs Derby

Luton Town
78.6%
Draw
12.2%
Derby County
9.2%
131
Head to Head
Feb 26, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 35
Luton
1-0
Derby
Hylton (67')
Burke (52'), Jerome (72')

Kazim-Richards (77'), Ebiowei (90+3')
Oct 19, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
Derby
2-2
Luton
Lawrence (20'), Knight (60')
Lawrence (90+2')
Onyedinma (49'), Adebayo (84')
Naismith (14'), Ruddock (90+2')
Apr 2, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 39
Derby
2-0
Luton
Gregory (7'), Shinnie (49' pen.)
Wisdom (47'), Sibley (51'), Byrne (66'), Kazim-Richards (90+5')

Dewsbury-Hall (66'), Pearson (81')
Sep 19, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 2
Luton
2-1
Derby
Berry (34'), Clark (87')
Norrington-Davies (22'), Ruddock (90+4')
Marriott (52')
Jan 28, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 29
Luton
3-2
Derby
Ruddock (67'), Daniels (74'), Bogle (86' og.)
Ruddock (70')
Mark Rooney (63'), Martin (85')
Bogle (23'), Hamer (88'), Rooney (88'), Wisdom (94')
Lowe (88')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds29179353193460
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd29186540211958
3Burnley29151223692757
4Sunderland291510442241855
5Blackburn RoversBlackburn30136113429545
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom291014538251344
7Middlesbrough29128947361144
8Bristol City29101183734341
9Watford29125124041-141
10Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds29118104245-341
11Norwich CityNorwich29109104842639
12Coventry CityCoventry29108113938138
13Queens Park RangersQPR2991193237-538
14Millwall29910102826237
15Preston North EndPreston3081393338-537
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd2999113343-1036
17Swansea CitySwansea2997133240-834
18Cardiff CityCardiff29710123344-1131
19Hull City2978143038-829
20Stoke CityStoke29611122636-1029
21Portsmouth2978143652-1629
22Derby CountyDerby2976163240-827
23Luton TownLuton2975172948-1926
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth29410152762-3522


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