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Europa League
Qarabag
Europa League | League Stage
Nov 28, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Tofiq Bahramov adina Respublika stadionu (Baki (Baku))
Lyon

Qarabag
1 - 4
Lyon

Juninho (88' pen.)
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mikautadze (15', 80'), Tolisso (63'), Fofana (68')
Maitland-Niles (57'), Tagliafico (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Qarabag FK and Lyon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

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Last Game: Bodo/Glimt 1-2 Qarabag
Thursday, November 7 at 5.45pm in Europa League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Lyon

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Reims 1-1 Lyon
Saturday, November 23 at 8pm in Ligue 1

We said: Qarabag FK 0-1 Lyon

 It is not easy making such a long trip away in Europe, but even with conditions and the weather set to be challenging, Lyon should be able to continue their fine form here and return to winning ways in this competition. Qarabag are surprisingly poor at home in the Europa League, with just five wins in Baku in their history, and despite a surprise win on matchday four, this will be a tougher test. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 37.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.38%) and 0-2 (5.61%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.

Result
Qarabag FKDrawLyon
37.58% (1.745 1.75) 24.18% (-0.083000000000002 -0.08) 38.23% (-1.663 -1.66)
Both teams to score 60.79% (0.461 0.46)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.25% (0.53599999999999 0.54)41.75% (-0.537 -0.54)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.84% (0.54 0.54)64.15% (-0.541 -0.54)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.8% (1.155 1.16)22.2% (-1.157 -1.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.39% (1.711 1.71)55.61% (-1.712 -1.71)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.13% (-0.57599999999999 -0.58)21.87% (0.577 0.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.89% (-0.88200000000001 -0.88)55.11% (0.88 0.88)
Score Analysis
    Qarabag FK 37.58%
    Lyon 38.23%
    Draw 24.18%
Qarabag FKDrawLyon
2-1 @ 8.36% (0.223 0.22)
1-0 @ 7.31% (0.074 0.07)
2-0 @ 5.5% (0.239 0.24)
3-1 @ 4.19% (0.249 0.25)
3-2 @ 3.19% (0.137 0.14)
3-0 @ 2.76% (0.209 0.21)
4-1 @ 1.58% (0.144 0.14)
4-2 @ 1.2% (0.091 0.09)
4-0 @ 1.04% (0.111 0.11)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 37.58%
1-1 @ 11.1% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-2 @ 6.35% (0.062 0.06)
0-0 @ 4.85% (-0.118 -0.12)
3-3 @ 1.62% (0.042 0.04)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 24.18%
1-2 @ 8.44% (-0.21 -0.21)
0-1 @ 7.38% (-0.313 -0.31)
0-2 @ 5.61% (-0.34 -0.34)
1-3 @ 4.28% (-0.183 -0.18)
2-3 @ 3.22% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.84% (-0.225 -0.23)
1-4 @ 1.63% (-0.099 -0.1)
2-4 @ 1.22% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-4 @ 1.08% (-0.106 -0.11)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 38.23%

How you voted: Qarabag vs Lyon

Qarabag FK
18.2%
Draw
16.2%
Lyon
65.5%
148
rhs 2.0
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