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Europa League
Qarabag
Europa League | League Stage
Oct 24, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Tofiq Bahramov adina Respublika stadionu (Baki (Baku))
Ajax

Qarabag
0 - 3
Ajax


Cafarquliyev (15'), Huseynov (22'), Benzia (45+4'), Medina (73'), Jankovic (81')
Romao (15'), Cafarquliyev (79')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Taylor (36'), Weghorst (74' pen.), Akpom (77')
Taylor (20'), Fitz-Jim (45+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Qarabag FK and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Qarabag 1-2 Malmo
Thursday, October 3 at 5.45pm in Europa League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Ajax

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Heracles 3-4 Ajax
Sunday, October 20 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

We said: Qarabag FK 1-2 Ajax

 Both teams have looked strong on the domestic front so far this season, but Ajax have fared better on the continent and they will be regarded as favourites to come out on top against Qarabag. The hosts have the firepower to cause Ajax problems in the final third, but we are backing the Dutch giants to outscore their opponents and secure their third successive win in all competitions. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 55.18%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 23.73% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.32%) and 0-1 (7.05%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Qarabag FKDrawAjax
23.73% (-8.99 -8.99) 21.09% (-1.914 -1.91) 55.18% (10.901 10.9)
Both teams to score 63.77% (-0.371 -0.37)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.69% (2.628 2.63)34.31% (-2.63 -2.63)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.78% (2.907 2.91)56.21% (-2.909 -2.91)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.91% (-4.53 -4.53)27.09% (4.53 4.53)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.52% (-6.318 -6.32)62.47% (6.317 6.32)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.47% (4.637 4.64)12.53% (-4.639 -4.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.44% (8.863 8.86)38.56% (-8.865 -8.87)
Score Analysis
    Qarabag FK 23.73%
    Ajax 55.18%
    Draw 21.09%
Qarabag FKDrawAjax
2-1 @ 6.01% (-1.553 -1.55)
1-0 @ 4.43% (-1.334 -1.33)
2-0 @ 2.9% (-1.399 -1.4)
3-2 @ 2.72% (-0.59 -0.59)
3-1 @ 2.62% (-1.138 -1.14)
3-0 @ 1.26% (-0.871 -0.87)
Other @ 3.79%
Total : 23.73%
1-1 @ 9.21% (-0.951 -0.95)
2-2 @ 6.24% (-0.422 -0.42)
0-0 @ 3.4% (-0.479 -0.48)
3-3 @ 1.88% (-0.061 -0.06)
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 21.09%
1-2 @ 9.56% (0.609 0.61)
0-2 @ 7.32% (1.31 1.31)
0-1 @ 7.05% (0.226 0.23)
1-3 @ 6.62% (1.361 1.36)
0-3 @ 5.07% (1.537 1.54)
2-3 @ 4.32% (0.408 0.41)
1-4 @ 3.44% (1.12 1.12)
0-4 @ 2.63% (1.076 1.08)
2-4 @ 2.24% (0.519 0.52)
1-5 @ 1.43% (0.612 0.61)
0-5 @ 1.09% (0.545 0.55)
3-4 @ 0.98% (0.121 0.12)
2-5 @ 0.93% (0.324 0.32)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 55.18%

How you voted: Qarabag vs Ajax

Qarabag FK
19.8%
Draw
14.9%
Ajax
65.3%
202
rhs 2.0
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