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Leipzig logo
DFB-Pokal | Second Round
Oct 29, 2024 at 5pm UK
Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig
4 - 2
St Pauli

Poulsen (12', 30'), Baumgartner (17'), Nusa (80')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Guilavogui (28'), Smith (59')
Saliakas (40')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's DFB-Pokal clash between RB Leipzig and St Pauli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: RB Leipzig 3-1 Freiburg
Saturday, October 26 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

St Pauli

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: St Pauli 0-0 Wolfsburg
Saturday, October 26 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: RB Leipzig 1-0 St Pauli

 Though Leipzig have not been particularly prolific in front of goal, their defensive record is exceptional, and they could keep a clean sheet on Tuesday. Additionally, given the hosts' strong pedigree in the DFB-Pokal in recent seasons, it would be surprising if they were eliminated at such an early stage of the competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 50.88%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 26.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
RB LeipzigDrawSt Pauli
50.88% (-0.012 -0.01) 22.92% (0.0039999999999978 0) 26.2% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Both teams to score 59.87% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.37% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)40.63% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.99% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)63.01% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.88% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)16.12% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.47% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)45.53% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
St Pauli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.38% (0.0049999999999955 0)28.62% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.57% (0.0040000000000049 0)64.43% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Score Analysis
    RB Leipzig 50.88%
    St Pauli 26.2%
    Draw 22.92%
RB LeipzigDrawSt Pauli
2-1 @ 9.61%
1-0 @ 8.42% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 7.69% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-1 @ 5.85% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-0 @ 4.68% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.66% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 2.67% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 2.13% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.67% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 0.98% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 50.88%
1-1 @ 10.53%
2-2 @ 6.01%
0-0 @ 4.61% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.53%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 22.92%
1-2 @ 6.59% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-1 @ 5.77% (0.0029999999999992 0)
0-2 @ 3.61% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 2.75% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.51%
0-3 @ 1.51% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 26.2%

How you voted: RB Leipzig vs St Pauli

RB Leipzig
80.7%
Draw
10.1%
St Pauli
9.2%
109
Head to Head
Sep 22, 2024 6.30pm
Gameweek 4
St Pauli
0-0
RB Leipzig
Treu (29'), Saad (71')
Haidara (24')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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