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Bundesliga | Gameweek 7
Oct 18, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
2 - 1
St Pauli

Bensebaini (43'), Guirassy (83')
Bynoe-Gittens (75'), Brandt (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Smith (78')
Smith (40')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and St Pauli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 2-1 Dortmund
Saturday, October 5 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

St Pauli

All competitions
Last Game: St Pauli 0-3 Mainz
Saturday, October 5 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 St Pauli

 Although Borussia Dortmund have struggled for consistency in recent weeks, it is difficult to see them losing given the poor offensive record of the visitors. It would also be surprising if St Pauli managed to avoid defeat considering the strong home form of their hosts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 57.17%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 22.49% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.22%) and 3-1 (6.9%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (5.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Borussia Dortmund.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawSt Pauli
57.17% (-1.334 -1.33) 20.35% (0.073 0.07) 22.49% (1.262 1.26)
Both teams to score 64.85% (1.654 1.65)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.81% (1.332 1.33)32.18% (-1.332 -1.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.22% (1.537 1.54)53.78% (-1.538 -1.54)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.71% (0.058999999999997 0.06)11.29% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.08% (0.132 0.13)35.92% (-0.132 -0.13)
St Pauli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.11% (1.818 1.82)26.89% (-1.817 -1.82)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.8% (2.329 2.33)62.2% (-2.328 -2.33)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 57.17%
    St Pauli 22.49%
    Draw 20.35%
Borussia DortmundDrawSt Pauli
2-1 @ 9.49% (-0.142 -0.14)
2-0 @ 7.22% (-0.492 -0.49)
3-1 @ 6.9% (-0.086 -0.09)
1-0 @ 6.62% (-0.468 -0.47)
3-0 @ 5.25% (-0.344 -0.34)
3-2 @ 4.53% (0.172 0.17)
4-1 @ 3.76% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2.86% (-0.179 -0.18)
4-2 @ 2.47% (0.1 0.1)
5-1 @ 1.64% (-0.012 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.25% (-0.075 -0.08)
4-3 @ 1.08% (0.095 0.1)
5-2 @ 1.08% (0.046 0.05)
Other @ 3.02%
Total : 57.17%
1-1 @ 8.7% (-0.151 -0.15)
2-2 @ 6.23% (0.222 0.22)
0-0 @ 3.04% (-0.223 -0.22)
3-3 @ 1.98% (0.17 0.17)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 20.35%
1-2 @ 5.71% (0.19 0.19)
0-1 @ 3.99% (-0.079 -0.08)
2-3 @ 2.73% (0.229 0.23)
0-2 @ 2.62% (0.081 0.08)
1-3 @ 2.5% (0.203 0.2)
0-3 @ 1.15% (0.091 0.09)
Other @ 3.79%
Total : 22.49%

How you voted: Dortmund vs St Pauli

Borussia Dortmund
87.9%
Draw
9.7%
St Pauli
2.4%
207
Head to Head
Jan 18, 2022 7.45pm
Last 16
St Pauli
2-1
Dortmund
Amenyido (4'), Witsel (40' og.)
Braut Haaland (58' pen.)
> Preview
Oct 28, 2014 7.30pm
Second Round
St Pauli
0-3
Dortmund

Gonther (84'), Maier (85')
Immobile (33'), Reus (44'), Kagawa (86')
Kehl (84')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1595137211632
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1583435231227
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Mainz 05Mainz157442820825
6Borussia DortmundDortmund157442822625
7Werder Bremen157442625125
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach157352520524
9Freiburg157352124-324
10Stuttgart156542925423
11Wolfsburg156363228421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin154561419-517
13Augsburg154471732-1516
14St Pauli154291219-714
15Hoffenheim153572028-814
16Heidenheim1531111833-1510
17Holstein Kiel1522111938-198
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1513111335-226
> Bundesliga Full Table


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