Red Star

1 - 2

Benfica

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 38.66%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 37.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.03%) and 0-2 (5.5%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Benfica in this match.