Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 1st Leg
May 22, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
Vasco3 - 3Fortaleza
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Vasco 2-1 Vitoria
Sunday, May 12 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Sunday, May 12 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Boca Juniors 1-1 Fortaleza
Thursday, May 16 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Thursday, May 16 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
We said: Vasco da Gama 0-0 Fortaleza (Fortaleza advances on penalties)
The last four competitive matches between these two teams at Estadio Sao Januario were decided by a goal or fewer, and we expect another nail-biter on Tuesday. In the end, we are counting on Fortaleza's experience in pressure situations over the past few seasons to give them a slight edge in this decisive encounter. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 47.35%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 27.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Vasco da Gama | Draw | Fortaleza |
47.35% ( -0.01) | 25.17% ( 0) | 27.48% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 53.45% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
