Leeds United take on Everton in the Premier League on Saturday evening seeking a rare victory at Goodison Park.
The Whites are winless in their last 13 top-flight trips to Everton since 1990 and have failed to score in eight of the last 10 such encounters.
Everton enter this contest sixth in the table after returning to winning ways last time out, while Leeds are without a win in three and are five points worse off than the Toffees.
Match preview
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Following a four-game run without victory, Carlo Ancelotti's side picked up a much-needed win away at lowly Fulham last weekend to get their European challenge back on track.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored his ninth and 10th Premier League goals of the season and Abdoulaye Doucoure was also on target in the entertaining match at Craven Cottage.
Not only had Everton failed to win their last four in a run stretching back to October 3, they had also lost their previous three games.
Ancelotti said after the match that "the difficult period is gone" and that his side are now ready to push on, with a top-four finish currently the target.
While Everton have had little trouble in finding the back of the net this term, keeping out opponents has been a far tougher task, conceding two or more in their last six games.
That is something Leeds, held to a goalless draw by 10-man Arsenal last time out, will have to take full advantage of if they are to stop their slide down the division.
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Marcelo Bielsa, this week nominated for FIFA's men's coach of the year, admitted to being "frustrated" by his side's inability to find a way through last Sunday.
Leeds have had 85 shots in their last five matches and have scored from five of those (a 6% conversion rate), compared to nine goals from 45 shots in their first four games (20%).
That is clearly a problem Bielsa will have to resolve, having seen his side collect one point from the last nine on offer, and five from the last 18.
With trips to Everton, Chelsea and Manchester United to come in quick succession, Leeds will know the importance of finding their early-season form again.
Everton Premier League form: WDLLLW
Leeds United Premier League form: DLWLLD
Team News
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Ancelotti's decision to switch to a back five against Fulham paid off and the Italian is expected to stick with that formation this weekend.
Seamus Coleman remains absent, so Alex Iwobi will again be tasked with operating at right wing-back, while Lucas Digne has also been ruled out.
Calvert-Lewin seems certain to lead the line as he looks to break Les Ferdinand's record of 13 goals in the first 10 games of a Premier League season.
As for Leeds, Rodrigo Moreno featured for the Under-23s side in the week to help build up his fitness following a spell on the sidelines with coronavirus.
Patrick Bamford is the likely option to start up top here, though, with the Englishman having scored in all four of his side's opening four away matches.
Key midfield man Kalvin Phillips was back involved against Arsenal last weekend and, barring any unknown injury issues, Leeds may stick with the same starting lineup.
Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Godfrey, Mina, Keane; Iwobi, Allan, Doucoure, Kenny; Rodriguez, Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison
Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Koch, Cooper, Alioski; Raphinha, Dallas, Phillips, Klich, Harrison; Bamford
We say: Everton 3-1 Leeds United
Everton appear to have recovered from a recent blip and will now be looking to build some momentum heading into the final month of the year.
Only two sides in the division have conceded more goals than Leeds this term, even accounting for their clean sheet against Arsenal, and we can see Everton capitalising on that.
Top betting tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 38.79%. A win for Everton had a probability of 35.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-0 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Leeds United in this match.
