Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 53.27%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 21.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.1%) and 1-2 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 1-0 (7.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajaccio | Draw | Lyon |
21.93% ( -0.03) | 24.79% ( -0.02) | 53.27% ( 0.05) |
Both teams to score 49.03% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.3% ( 0.03) | 52.69% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.67% ( 0.03) | 74.33% ( -0.03) |
Ajaccio Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.09% ( -0.01) | 38.91% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.36% ( -0.01) | 75.64% ( 0.01) |
Lyon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.25% ( 0.03) | 19.74% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.22% ( 0.05) | 51.77% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Ajaccio | Draw | Lyon |
1-0 @ 7.25% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.55% ( -0) 2-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.75% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.42% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.08% ( -0) Other @ 1.46% Total : 21.93% | 1-1 @ 11.76% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.68% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.5% Other @ 0.84% Total : 24.79% | 0-1 @ 12.46% 0-2 @ 10.1% 1-2 @ 9.54% ( 0) 0-3 @ 5.47% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 5.16% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.44% ( 0) 0-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.09% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.8% Total : 53.26% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 10 | 23 | 29 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 23 |
3 | Marseille | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 20 |
4 | Lille | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 19 |
5 | Lyon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Nice | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 17 |
7 | Reims | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 17 |
8 | Lens | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 17 |
9 | Auxerre | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 16 |
10 | Toulouse | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 15 |
11 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 13 |
12 | Brest | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
13 | Rennes | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 |
14 | NantesNantes | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
15 | Angers | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 |
16 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 10 |
17 | Le HavreLe Havre | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 9 |
18 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 7 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |