Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 45.06%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 27.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Bastia win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caen would win this match.
