Everton remain in contention for European football heading into their clash with champions Manchester City on the final day of the Premier League season.
The Toffees are positioned eighth in the table and just three points off sixth, while Man City will now have more than one eye on next week's Champions League final.
Match preview
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Carlo Ancelotti's side have struggled for consistency pretty much throughout a frustrating 2020-21, yet that has also been the case for each of the teams around them in the table.
Wednesday's 1-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers, secured through a Richarlison goal, means that Everton can still technically qualify for the Europa League.
However, they trail sixth-placed West Ham United by three points and have a significantly worse goal difference, so seventh place - and a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League - is the more realistic aim.
For that to be achieved Everton will almost certainly need to beat Man City as Arsenal - one point worse off - are at home to Brighton & Hove Albion, while also hoping Tottenham Hotspur fail to beat Leicester City.
Winning at the Etihad Stadium is no easy feat, of course, especially when taking into account that Everton have not won back-to-back league games since the start of March.
Ancelotti's men have won just three of their last 11 games since then, though their away form does provide hope of an upset this weekend, losing just one of their last 14 away from Goodison Park.
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However, Everton have lost their last six Premier League games against Man City, only losing more consecutively in the competition against Manchester United (nine between 1999-2004).
City do not exactly have much to play for in their final league game of another impressive campaign, though, having wrapped up a third title in four seasons under Pep Guardiola with three games to spare.
The Citizens' results over the past five weeks certainly suggest that they have taken their foot off the gas, losing half of their last six league matches - against Leeds United, Chelsea and Brighton & Hove Albion.
The most recent of those defeats at the Amex Stadium left Guardiola a little concerned, with his 10 men throwing away a two-goal lead to lose 3-2.
Guardiola accepted at full time that a big improvement is needed if City are to beat domestic rivals Chelsea in next week's Champions League final, with this his last chance to get things right ahead of that massive game.
City have lost their final league game in just one of the last 12 seasons, the solitary defeat in that run coming at home to Norwich City in 2012-13.
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Team News
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Ilkay Gundogan hobbled off the pitch in Man City's loss to Brighton and will not be risked here, while Kevin De Bruyne is another whose fitness will be closely monitored.
Guardiola is expected to name a slightly weakened side with the Champions League final in mind, which could see the likes of Nathan Ake, Aymeric Laporte and Sergio Aguero start.
Aguero has been struggling with an injury issue, but this is his last home game for Man City and the club's all-time leading goalscorer will be desperate to play a part.
Joao Cancelo will play no part after his sending off against Brighton, meanwhile, so Kyle Walker is likely to start at right-back and Benjamin Mendy on the opposite side.
As for Everton, they are without just one player for their final game of the season, with Jean-Philippe Gbamin still nursing an injury.
There is no question that Ancelotti will field his strongest possible side at the Etihad Stadium, so expect Richarlison to link up with Dominic Calvert-Lewin in attack.
Yerry Mina is back to fitness and will retain his place alongside Michael Keane, with Ancelotti unlikely to make any changes on the back of the midweek win against Wolves.
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Walker, Laporte, Ake, Mendy; De Bruyne, Fernandinho, Rodrigo; Torres, Aguero, Sterling
Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Godfrey, Mina, Keane, Digne; Coleman, Doucoure, Allan, Sigurdsson; Richarlison, Calvert-Lewin
We say: Manchester City 1-1 Everton
Man City will use this game as a last preparation for the Champions League final, while Everton can qualify for Europe with a positive set of results on Sunday.
The Toffees have struggled for consistency this season, but they have looked a lot better on their travels and we can see them picking up a rare point at the Etihad Stadium.
Top tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 64.19%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Everton had a probability of 15.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.65%), while for a Everton win it was 0-1 (4.71%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
