Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 52.91%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 23.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 1-2 (6.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that DC United would win this match.
Result | ||
DC United | Draw | Chicago Fire |
52.91% ( 0.5) | 23.22% ( -0.06) | 23.87% ( -0.44) |
Both teams to score 56.34% ( -0.29) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.83% ( -0.15) | 44.17% ( 0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.45% ( -0.15) | 66.55% ( 0.14) |
DC United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.32% ( 0.12) | 16.68% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.45% ( 0.22) | 46.55% ( -0.22) |
Chicago Fire Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.61% ( -0.45) | 32.38% ( 0.45) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.1% ( -0.51) | 68.9% ( 0.51) |
Score Analysis |
DC United | Draw | Chicago Fire |
2-1 @ 9.77% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.67% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 8.66% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 5.83% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 5.17% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.61% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.32% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.47% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.18% Total : 52.91% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.51% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.4% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.21% | 1-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 6.09% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.53% Total : 23.87% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 44 | 24 | 64 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 58 | 31 | 27 | 56 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 56 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 44 |
5 | Orlando City | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 43 |
6 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 33 | 3 | 41 |
7 | New York City FCNY City | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 41 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 36 |
9 | Toronto | 31 | 11 | 3 | 17 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 36 |
10 | CF MontrealMontreal | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 34 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 33 |
12 | Nashville SCNashville | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 33 |
13 | DC United | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 33 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 29 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 29 | 8 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 60 | -28 | 28 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 46 | 17 | 58 |
2 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 60 | 45 | 15 | 51 |
3 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 58 | 50 | 8 | 50 |
4 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 49 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 48 |
6 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 47 |
7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 46 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 53 | 10 | 44 |
9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 50 | 48 | 2 | 42 |
10 | Dallas | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 49 | 0 | 37 |
11 | Austin FCAustin | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 35 |
12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 31 |
13 | St Louis City | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 43 | 57 | -14 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 30 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 18 |