Major League Soccer

May 28, 2023 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
2 - 1
DC United

Kerr (14'), Thompson (72')
Kaye (45+2'), Marshall-Rutty (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Benteke (87')
Santos (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and DC United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions

Last Game: Austin 1-0 Toronto
Sunday, May 21 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

DC United

All competitions

Last Game: DC United 3-0 LA Galaxy
Sunday, May 21 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Toronto 2-0 DC United

Since 2015, DC have only captured one away match at BMO Field, and their defence have left Miller hanging out to dry too much this season, so although the Reds seem to have their issues, we believe they will be able to expose the visitors' weak backline on Saturday.

How to watch

You can watch Toronto vs. DC United and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for DC United had a probability of 25.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest DC United win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.

Result
Toronto	Draw	DC United
48.94% ( 0.06)	25.18% ( -0.23)	25.88% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 52.1% (

0.85)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.25% (

1.04)

50.75% (

-1.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.35% (

0.91)

72.64% (

-0.91)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.24% (

0.45)

20.75% (

-0.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.61% (

0.7)

53.39% (

-0.7)

DC United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.74% (

0.7)

34.25% (

-0.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.05% (

0.75)

70.95% (

-0.75)

Score Analysis

Toronto 48.93%

DC United 25.88%

Draw 25.17%

Toronto	Draw	DC United
1-0 @ 11.17% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.79% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 4.94% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 4.61% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.58% Total : 48.93%	1-1 @ 11.97% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.3) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.17%	0-1 @ 7.62% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 6.42% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.22% Total : 25.88%