We said: Austria 2-2 Norway
It was a close contest when these sides met in September, with Norway just snatching victory thanks to an 80th-minute winner.
Given home advantage on this occasion, Ralf Rangnick's hard-running Austria side should at least emerge with a draw, keeping them in the mix for a top-two finish next month.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 45.51%. A win for Norway had a probability of 30.47% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Norway win was 1-2 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austria would win this match.
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