As alluded to above, this looks set to be a tight Group C3 encounter on Monday evening, between two sides in desperate need for the points following poor runs of form.
Confidence is likely to be low in both camps, particularly in the final thirds of the pitch, so goals are expected to be at a premium, with home advantage perhaps proving pivotal for Azerbaijan to nick all three points by a narrow margin.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belarus win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 35.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belarus win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.83%) and 0-2 (6.03%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 2-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Azerbaijan would win this match.
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