MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 12:46:38| >> :120:67630:67630:
UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Estonia national football team
Nations League | League C
Oct 14, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
A. Le Coq Arena
Sweden national football team

Estonia
0 - 3
Sweden


Peetson (39'), Mets (41')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Nanasi (29', 37'), Gyokeres (66')
Douglas (15'), Hien (20'), Sema (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Nations League clash between Estonia and Sweden, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estonia

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Estonia 3-1 Azerbaijan
Friday, October 11 at 5pm in Nations League

Sweden

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Slovakia 2-2 Sweden
Friday, October 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Estonia 1-3 Sweden

 Sweden have only won three of their 10 away Nations League matches, but we still believe that they will take three points from Monday's fixture, having won each of their previous five meetings with Estonia, including a 5-0 victory in their most recent away encounter in September 2023. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 54.52%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 23.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.48%) and 0-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Estonia win was 2-1 (6.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.

Result
EstoniaDrawSweden
23.38% (0.256 0.26) 22.1% (0.34 0.34) 54.52% (-0.595 -0.59)
Both teams to score 59.61% (-0.882 -0.88)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.43% (-1.31 -1.31)39.57% (1.31 1.31)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.08% (-1.377 -1.38)61.92% (1.379 1.38)
Estonia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.72% (-0.509 -0.51)30.28% (0.511 0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.55% (-0.613 -0.61)66.45% (0.61500000000001 0.62)
Sweden Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.49% (-0.634 -0.63)14.5% (0.635 0.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.49% (-1.239 -1.24)42.51% (1.241 1.24)
Score Analysis
    Estonia 23.38%
    Sweden 54.52%
    Draw 22.1%
EstoniaDrawSweden
2-1 @ 6.05% (0.063999999999999 0.06)
1-0 @ 5.25% (0.244 0.24)
2-0 @ 3.14% (0.104 0.1)
3-1 @ 2.41% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.33% (-0.063 -0.06)
3-0 @ 1.25% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 23.38%
1-1 @ 10.13% (0.247 0.25)
2-2 @ 5.84% (-0.072 -0.07)
0-0 @ 4.39% (0.263 0.26)
3-3 @ 1.5% (-0.076 -0.08)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 22.1%
1-2 @ 9.78% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
0-1 @ 8.48% (0.323 0.32)
0-2 @ 8.19% (0.129 0.13)
1-3 @ 6.29% (-0.134 -0.13)
0-3 @ 5.27% (-0.037 -0.04)
2-3 @ 3.76% (-0.134 -0.13)
1-4 @ 3.04% (-0.136 -0.14)
0-4 @ 2.54% (-0.077 -0.08)
2-4 @ 1.82% (-0.108 -0.11)
1-5 @ 1.17% (-0.081 -0.08)
0-5 @ 0.98% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 3.2%
Total : 54.52%

How you voted: Estonia vs Sweden

Estonia
13.0%
Draw
14.5%
Sweden
72.5%
131
Head to Head
Sep 8, 2024 7.45pm
League C
Sweden
3-0
Estonia
Gyokeres (30', 44'), Isak (40')

Palumets (50'), Tamm (89')
Palumets (62')
> Preview
Jan 12, 2024 6pm
Friendlies 1
Sweden
2-1
Estonia
Nanasi (30'), Kiese Thelin (53')
Eriksson (39')
Palumets (19')
Mihhailov (35'), Andre Vallner (84')
> Preview
Nov 19, 2023 5pm
Group Stage
Sweden
2-0
Estonia
Claesson (22'), Forsberg (55')
Helander (72')

Kuusk (69'), Poom (90+1')
> Preview
Sep 9, 2023 5pm
Group Stage
Estonia
0-5
Sweden

Mets (14')
Gyokeres (18'), Kulusevski (24'), Isak (39'), Quaison (75'), Claesson (90+2')
Hien (21')
> Preview
Mar 31, 2021 4.45pm
Friendlies 1
Sweden
1-0
Estonia
Berg (4')
Sema (61'), Svanberg (80')

Kirss (52'), Purg (73'), Anier (76')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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