Wales have not been pulling up trees on the attacking front over the past six months, but Bellamy's men should back themselves to keep Iceland at arm's length in Cardiff after their dogged defensive display in Turkey.
Fatigue on both sides after respective long journeys could give rise to a drab, low-scoring affair, but the Dragons have our backing to come up with the crucial moment and ensure at least a second-placed finish in the section.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 64.17%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 14.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (5.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
0.01) 
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