The final Hudson River Derby of 2023 takes place on Saturday at Yankee Stadium as the New York Red Bulls make the short trip to the Bronx to battle New York City FC.
It will be the third match in a five-game homestand for the Boys in Blue, who played the Vancouver Whitecaps to a 1-1 draw the last time out, putting them 12th in the Eastern Conference of Major League Soccer, a point above the Red Bulls, with the latter losing 4-1 to the Philadelphia Union.
Match preview
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Missed opportunities have been a common theme in 2023 for Nick Cushing's men, who had their chances at home versus Vancouver but, in the end, failed to hang onto a second-half advantage for the third time this year.
Those six points dropped are looming large right now, as the Pigeons are currently four points behind the playoff line, with only six matches remaining.
NYCFC are in danger of missing the postseason for only the second time in club history, but they are putting up a big fight to try to avoid that scenario, collecting six draws this season when trailing in the second half, while they lead the league with a dozen single points this year.
It is unusual to see this team get dominated by the opposition over 90 minutes, though New York City have also rarely been able to find that extra gear that can turn one point into three, as 21 of the Pigeons' 28 regular season fixtures have been decided by a goal or fewer, while they have only emerged victorious on three of those occasions.
They have collected at least a point in 15 of their last 16 regular season contests played at Yankee Stadium dating back to April 2022, with their only defeat over that stretch coming at home to the Supporters' Shield leaders FC Cincinnati at the end of May (3-1).
The Pigeons will need at least eight points from their remaining games to avoid matching their lowest-ever single-season total from 2015 (37), while they must win four of their final six encounters to surpass a franchise record low for victories in a single domestic campaign (10 in 2015).
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The Red Bulls' run of 13 consecutive playoff appearances is hanging by a thread as this team failed to gain any ground last Saturday, losing for a third successive time.
Troy Lesesne, who will be suspended for this encounter, has seen his side lose six of their last eight domestic meetings after claiming at least a point in six of their eight league fixtures played between May 13 and June 24.
Even if they win their remaining seven matches, New York would still finish with three points fewer than the 53 they put up in 2022, but if the Red Bulls can somehow reach the 50-point plateau, it would be their second-highest regular-season total since 2018 (71).
This team have lost four straight domestic affairs away from home, going from the second-best Eastern Conference road team regarding wins in 2022 (nine) to the joint second-worst alongside New York City FC, with each side winning only once as the visitors in 2023.
If not for their late-game heroics, the Red Bulls' current predicament could be much worse, as this team have scored an equalising or winning goal beyond the 75th minute in seven domestic encounters this year, earning 15 points as a result, which is over half of their current total (29).
A victory against the Pigeons would not only put them back in the playoff hunt, but it would also mark just the second time that they finish a season with a 100% record against NYCFC, having previously done so in 2015.
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Team News
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New York City were dealt a significant blow in their previous encounter when Maxi Moralez ruptured his ACL, while Birk Risa was taken off with an apparent knock and James Sands was back on the field for the first time since being hurt in their defeat versus Minnesota United (2-0), replacing Keaton Parks at the start of the second half.
Mitja Ilenic could be available for the Pigeons after playing a full 90 minutes for the Slovenian Under-21 team in both of their Euro qualifying fixtures, while Tayvon Gray made his first international appearance for the Jamaican national team as their CONCACAF Nations League campaign kicked off earlier this month.
Monsef Bakrar has scored in consecutive matches with the Boys in Blue, while Matt Freese has started the last two games in goal in place of Luis Barraza, conceding a goal or fewer in all but one of his appearances this season (3-1 loss to FC Cincinnati on May 31).
Lewis Morgan, who led the Red Bulls in goals last season (15), will be out for the remainder of the campaign after undergoing hip surgery earlier this month, Dante Vanzeir is questionable with a sore thigh, as is Steven Sserwadda because of a problem in his knee, Serge Ngoma has a hamstring strain, Dylan Nealis was on the sidelines versus Philly despite previously hurting his hip, while his brother Sean Nealis received two cautions in the opening half of that match and will be suspended on Saturday.
Carlos Coronel made his first two appearances for Paraguay during the international window, conceding just once in those two encounters combined against Peru (0-0) and Venezuela (1-0), but with only a few days to rest ahead of this clash, it could open the door for Ryan Meara to start in goal for the first time domestically in 2023.
Omir Fernandez had their only goal, which put them temporarily in front against the Union, moving him into a tie with Frankie Amaya for the team lead this year (four), while he has also scored the winner in their two previous matches with NYCFC at the Leagues Cup (1-0) and in MLS (1-0), putting him up to four in his career versus the Pigeons.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Freese; Ilenic, Martins, Sands, Cufre; Parks, Perea; Jasson, Rodriguez, J. Fernandez; Bakrar
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Harper, Reyes, Ndam, Tolkin; O. Fernandez, Edelman, Amaya, Luquinhas; Hurtado, Manoel
We say: New York City FC 2-0 New York Red Bulls
It is a real possibility that both New York clubs will miss the MLS Cup playoffs in the same season for the first time, as we are nearing closer to now or never time for each.
Many of their encounters this year have not gone their way, but NYCFC have created more scoring opportunities from one match to another when compared to the Red Bulls, and that is why we believe the home side will triumph on Saturday.
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Top tip
Joel Lefevre
